1) 3rd quarter will not show average production over 6500 bbl/d. Remember Sept had a 4 day shut-down and then problems, expect 6000 bbl/d for Sept. Hoping for anything more in the 3rd 1/4 is a dream. 4th 1/4 would be nice to see average of 8500/bbl/d but CLL has not proven this can be done
2) They may have good margins on asphalt sales but refinery also had a shutdown, don't expect a windfall
3) CLL doesn't seem to be the type to sell off assets
4) Algar looks good, but so did GD
5) Your cash flow of about $24 million seems about right
6) They will have big foreign exchange gain because of costless collar on US exchange
7) Hedging anpther 2500 bbl/d starting Jan 1/2010 for 9 months a good idea, as I stated in "lets be CLL Mgmt for a minute" in a previuos post.