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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Should Debt be a Concern ?

Hi guys

Sorry for being absent on the board for couple of weeks. Renovations are very demanding and keep my focus on fun as oppose to boring investment things.

I hope everyone enjoyed the ride to $1.22 , first target by Scotia Capital set by Mark Polak (one of the best O&G annalist in Canada) at $1.25 is almost there.

Good posts on the board. Some technical annalist and interesting number crunching related to CLL future netbacks and debt payments.

Kristy, were did you come from? good work (BTW is your 3rd degree in music?). Agree with some of your conclusions. CLL will have no ability to pay of the debt for long time to go. It extended itself with too much leverage (gambling nature of the management). As we all know nothing is on time and on budget. POD1 so far is 2500 to 3000bbl/d under the projected target and about 150 million above the budget. We have to wait and see for Algar numbers. This is way the management is seeking the partnership offer suggested by DG recently.

Scott,

I enjoy your post as always. Just the small reminder. Do not put any weight on BOE oil equivalent. This is cardinal sin and very misleading. 2000 boe out of 3000 you quoted is totally useless from the CLL corporate account point of you. CLL natural gas production does not add to CLL net cash flow any money and is totally useless.

Spide,

I posted this before. Most if not all OILSAND plays are trading at 1 X NAVPS adjusted by risk. Do not ask me why. This is how it is. After recent dramatic dilution CLL NAVPS is listed between $1.7 to $2 range. I hope Santa got your message but $4 or $5 CLL SP IMO is just the Christmas wish.

On the other hand, like with every wish, you never know.

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