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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: 4th quarter and 1st quarter estimates Oilsands only - Jurek- Royalties
PDP

Feb 22, 2010 12:59PM

Feb 22, 2010 01:14PM

Feb 23, 2010 02:03PM

Spide,

Since POD1 went commercial they produced about 3 million barrels. At 8000bbl/d in 2010/11 they will add additional 5 to 6 million for the total of 8 to 9 million.

At $50/bbl POD1 cumulative revenue will go to $400/450 million. This will AUTOMATICALLY SWITCH THEM TO 30% ROYALTIES RATE effectively cutting the POD1 cash flow in half. This will happen sometime next year when cumulative revenue exceeds cumulative cost.

It does not mater if this will happen in 2011(like I think) or in 2012. The cash flow will drop by 50% sooner or later. All company projections (see the slide show) are based on the 1% Royalties and are misleading long term investor who never read the small print. Even the smart cookies like you can be fooled by this trick.

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