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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: What Happens If TSHTF?

What Happens If TSHTF?

posted on Mar 18, 2010 07:15PM

We can now complete Algar and the related capital programs, while having more confidence in achieving minimum levels of earnings before interest, taxes, depletion, depreciation and accretion ("EBITDA") to meet both financial obligations and capital spending requirements for the year. Our 2010 capital budget has been reset at $256 million, as certain capital programs originally contemplated for this year were completed in late 2009. We forecast our full year 2010 EBITDA will surpass $130 million and this together with our cash balances and available credit, should allow us to again meet our obligations under normal pricing and operating conditions.

This statement is worrisome. I felt great reading it until I got to the caveat in the last six words. To me, this says that we're still at risk if we have another significant down-draft in the overall recession. I'd feel more comfortable if, once we get production numbers up at the end of the summer, we can enter into more hedging agreements to carry most of our production through the following 12 months. I'm not going to feel completely comfortable about CLL until we have at least 9-12 months of full production from Algar, ie. mid-2011.

Of course, the caveat to THAT is that many other people will feel the same way, so to really profit from the stock, one needs to load up between now and then.

Essentially, the stock is still riskier than many, hence the low SP compared to what many here feel it could and should be.




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Mar 18, 2010 07:23PM
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