Re: Scotia Capital notes on CLL 2009 Report/sharky
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 22, 2010 04:36PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Hi jurek
Yes indeed very funny .If they only could get some more conventional oil out of the ground that should give directly better cash flow because investments are not os big for that.The area they have on conventional production is that so small or is it not worse to concentrate some more on these grounds .If you take your numbers they could achieve more cash on that then from the SAGD.
IMO it's better to concentrate on what they do at the moment.Saying we go for 40.000 or 50.000 is very easy to predict but HOW to get there is something else.
The impression we got from the past two years has given a much different picture then we all probably had in mind.The quick advance in the sp we had a few years ago i guess will not be the case in the near future.
Some are dreaming from an sp at 5 again but all ill depend how they do their further financing .After we have seen which problems needed to solve for pod 1 it's almost certain they will face problems at Algar as well though they may have learned from pod 1 .I get the impression and more expierienced guys like 2C and others will probably admit that SAGD is not such an easy operarting technic.
Of course in time they will get at their goal but question is specially for us stock holders HOW they will do it.If the board should give some hints maybe that could support the sp .I think after the collaps of the stock from 5 to below 1 many situation have occured which has changes the view on the company strategy .Now it's up to them to convince the investors they will go for an approach to insure no further dillution on shares .
As stated from some guys or girls they can roll over their debt and go for better refinance etc..But if situations turn against them like bad economics again resulting in falling oil etc.. I 'm sure the stock will tank again.
Now on sp behavior.I had hoped we could finish at 1.34 or close but didn't happened.So more downside is possible despite good indexes performances.DG said markets don't recognize his drill results and reserves but their SAGD deals and the rest either.Tp sstate they have their ducks in a row is to early I guess .When they will markets will reward them.So far not a fact.