Whether short or long term, CLL is on a disappearing tightrope. Simple math doesn't make CLL viable without more injections (debt, shares or partnerships as noted by CLL executive).
1) Annual Form states $2.7B value (to that elusive target of 50,000 bbl/day) - whether you believe that or not. I grant complete confidence in management, and assume 20,000 bbl/day is perfectly functional end of 2010 - meaning 40% of the the $2.7B is well underway - meaning $1.08B current asset value.
2) Debt to acquire all assets is $876M - sell what you want to mitigate this number, Luke, MRC, PDP, etc. - you'll still be left with $750M (I'm being generous here....).
3) Shares (all) total 450M - insert any value you want, $0.75 to $1.50 (today's price) - value would be from $337M to $675M.
Has it hit you in the head yet...? Take your asset less debt less share value. Where can the share price be headed to help out shareholders? Where does the value come from for more debt to be acquired? Dice it up, cut it up, fancy it up speak it up and dress it up...it's been quite the pig to get 20,000 bbl/day production (and I'm giving them all the operational benefits of doubt that we'll get to the 20k bbl/day....).
Quite the volume today....wonder which "changing of the guard we have now"....(I guess we'll see it at the end of the month).
Good luck, but look at the asset and look at the cost to get there......
Booster