Brian,

Your points are very valid but for me are considerations for the medium to long term. The reason I changed my stance from buy and hold is mainly because I think globally we are still in a huge mess. Sentiment and smoke and mirrors is driving the markets higher. China will struggle to save the oil markets though they are breaking all records as far as oil imports are concerned.

With CLL SP beginning now to corrolate with the price of oil, look under the hood and you will realise there are underlying short term negative factors for oil.

1.) China uses only half the oil as does US (recently declining by around 8%). China will eventually overtake US of course but not in the near term.

2.) Greedy OPEC are currently only 50% compliant with their quota's. UAE and Saudi are the only guys anywhere near and even then are not 100%.

3.) Iran is storing millions of barrels offshore in tankers so much so they are pushing up the tanker rates. It is not because they think the price will go up, it's because they have no customers for the oil.

4.) Even the resumption of flights within Europe did not spur the oil price as it was expected to. Not a good sign.

5.) Seems there is also an oversupply of all refined product at the moment with ConocoPhilips citing this as the reason for pulling out of the 400,000 barrel/day Saudi refinery.

6.) There are twice as many futures contracts for $60-$70 than there are for $100. These guys are supposed to be playing with smart money.

7.) Prices have moved too far too fast.

These are the main reasons I made my decision. For the short term I believe we need to position ourselves for a pullback.

There are many positives and alternative views out there of course but I think they are mainly long term. I welcome any contradictory theories anyone may have because anyway what do I know. Perhaps the SP will go to the moon now I pulled out. Nevertheless I will play the percentages game follow the fundamentals for the moment.

Den