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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: other outlook/Gunter

Apr 28, 2010 01:32PM

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Apr 30, 2010 04:30PM

Hi Gunter

Before I answer your question one thing you have to recognize is the big difference between Natural gas situation in Europe and North American continent.

Here (including Canada) we have very strong oversupply situation which push the NG prices to historical low. Canadian NG spot prices are about $3.4 per GJ (15% lower then US spot prices). In last 2 weeks we had a small rally on the NG Future Market which influenced too some degree the NG Producers. On April 28 we hit the resistance level and had the major correction on April 29/30.

My HNU (Index X 2) stop loses were trigger at $5.38 on Thursday. My avr cost from April 20 was $5.47. On Friday I sold gassy Income Trust (which also is a Cardium play) DAY.UN

I still have the PMT.UN, a pure NG play which is paying monthly income yielding above 11%. My avr is about $4.8, it close on Friday above $5. This one I will unload if it goes below $5.

Most of the NG producers are loosing money at this prices (see CLL LUKE). Some lucky once (incl PMT.UN) have sold their production forward and their cash flow is supported by good hedge program. In general PMT.UN is not a long hold. Thier price droped from mid $25 to bellow $4 before recovering. Thier montly distribution drop from 26 centes to 5 cents per month.

In general, NG on our continent is not a good long term investment. I just had a small bet on the short term momentum play which did not work for me.

It is unfortunate that the CLL has two side business (NG-LUKE and MRC refinery) which are in the unprofitable sectors of North American Economy.

What do you guys think about more and more insiders selling the CLL shares?


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