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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Q1 2010 Results

Hi Glindway:

You stated: "Now i still don't know how we can make money... "

In response, oiltar wrote the following on the Stockhouse Board"

"Keep in mind that ONGC is not looking at CLL as a great cash flow operation in the short term.They are looking down the road at the reserves and the fact that CLL has a working enviro friendly operation.Even if CLL as a stand alone operation was to produce only break even results they don't care.Its the secure future oil supply they want to grow the India economy.ONGC is a government controled operation.A profit in Canada is of no interest its the secure oil source they need to advance a profitable operation in India.

On top of the CLL is trading at only 1.4 times revenue.ITS DIRT CHEAP."

So what I take from this is that the Indian state oil company (or a Chinese state oil company for that matter) would not be interested in the short term share price which doesn't matter to them, rather they are interested in Connacher's 30-40 year oilsands reserves. This makes sense as the Chinese oil companies have been buying oil reserves over the last couple of years in Iran, Sudan (bought Talisman's properties), Syria, Venezuela. They don't care where they buy the oil reserves for their future needs and they don't really care what they pay today for the reserves as the reserves are important to them 10, 20 , 30 years down the road. They are mainly interested in acquiring and securing their future oil needs today cheaply for their future needs. Connacher managements game plan I am sure is to hold on as long as possible and then sell for the right price in a year or two....either during or after the 44,000 bbl expansion occurs (depends on the timing...ie...how long they can juggle their debt. This in my humble opinion is what will unfold. The only two questions are: when it will be sold and for how much. Connacher shareholder's will get more money than Total paid to buy out Deer Creek. The end result will be the same.

Cheers; Scott

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