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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Predicting the Future

Wow! I'm both inpressed and appreciative Jurek!

My game is in the real estate sector, so refinancing is always part of the deal. Referring to your findings, and looking at the situation through the eyes of a landlord, I speculate as follows:

Forget about refinancing for the next 14 months; it could prove too costly, and anyhow, our present cash flow will guarantee another ritual molestation at the hands of the lenders.

Conditions change in December next year, with a maximum penalty of 5% for getting out of the deal. After that, depending on interest rates, the situation could change.

In the meanwhile, get potential and actual earnings up as high as possible, so as to attract as many potential dance partners as possible from the banking sector. Specific actions: pray for oil prices to rise (which they should), continue to improve production numbers at Great Divide and Algar, push for provincial approval of further development and finally, continue an agressive winter drilling program.

I find this latter initiative interesting in light of the issuing of new shares to finance this winter's program; it seems to suggest that CLL places a high importance on this work.

Now here is where I am in the dark: what types of interest rates would CLL be facing if it refinanced in a years's time, assuming rates do not change? Other companies I am involved with seem to be accessing money in the 4.5% - 6% range, but they are not energy sector. But if we take 6%, we would be saving 5% annually on the rate, or something like $30,000,000 a year, which should help going forwards.

Thoughts?

Shi Ming Sen

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