Hi Spide

Good calculations. The only problem is that you are using the $29 bitumen netback based on the info from the CLL Presentation.

If you look on the slide #47 you will find that the Bitumen netback is based on $61 Dil-Bit price. Unfortunately for us average Dil-bit price in September was only $50 and so far average (Oct 1 to 13) is $49. I guess local supply and demand and high $CND is putting the pressure on price.

The above Dit-Bit prices are implying CLL Bitumen netback at $17 to $18/bbl.

If you run this netback in your spread sheet the brake even point will move to $16,000 to 17,000 bbl/d.

In addition netback suggested by CLL is based on the pre-payout 1% Royalty. IMO this will go up (for POD1) to 25% at the end of the 2011. This will have a major effect on the netback.