After being restricted due to involvement in CLL equity offering Scotia Capital updated their notes on CLL. As recently reported GMP and Credit Suisse lower their targets on CLL SP.

Here it is:

Recent Update Text as of 22OCT10

Connacher closed the equity offering of 17.48 million flow-through shares,
including over-allotment, raising $25.3 million ($1.45/sh).

The equity raise is slightly dilutive to our NAV.

We have trimmed our 2P+2C NAVPS to $3.23, 2% below our previous estimate. We resume coverage with a $1.65 one-year target based on 50% of our NAV.

We’ve also lowered our 2011 CFPS estimate by 4% to $0.37. Net debt to cash flow drops to 4.7x in 2011E, and our 1P NAV of $0.90/sh is 3% higher than our previous estimate, both reflecting the deleveraging effect of the equity raise.

Our net debt estimate falls under 60% of EV. All eyes will be on bitumen production as the company reports Q3 results, tentatively scheduled for Nov. 10, and conference call the following day at 4:15pm MT. We can expect strong downstream margins on the back of strong asphalt pricing, with normal operations likely to resume in Q4.

2010 guidance for average bitumen production is 9 mbbl/d (vs ours estimate of 8.7 mbbl/d), with exit at 16 mbbl/d.

We resume coverage with a 2-SP rating, and a $1.65 one-year target.

Mark Polak, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada)
mark_polak@scotiacapital.com / (403) 213-7349