Recent Update, Text as of 11NOV, 2010

One-year target $1.65

Est CFPS (Basic): 2010 $0.11 ($49 millions) Average WTI at $77

2011 $0.19 ($87 millions) Average WTI at $80

2011 Capital expenditure $104 millions, free cash flow $-17 million

Connacher reported Q3 CFPS at $0.04, in line with our estimate and slightly
ahead of consensus of $0.03.

Bitumen production came in at 6.75 mbbl/d, ahead of our estimate of 6.5 mbbl/d.
More recently, bitumen production averaged 14 mbbl/d, just below the company’s
guidance exit rate for the year.

2010E guidance was trimmed 5% on slower ramp-up at Pod One, and capex was
increased slightly with spending on conventional assets. 2011E guidance capex at $104 million, production at 17.5 mboe/d.

The company plans to spend $104 million next year, of which 50% would be maintenance capital. We estimate the company will spend relatively close to cash flow, with net debt staying flat around the $800 million level by year end 2011.

Bitumen production is expected to average a conservative 15.5 mbbl/d, or 78% of
production capacity.

Connacher also announced it is planning on selling ~2 mboe/d of conventional
production, with proceeds from this divestiture redeployed to oil sands, other
conventional assets, and to pay down debt.

We maintain our 2-SP rating and $1.65 one-year target.