Hi Believe;

In answer to your question as to why I stay positive. While I have been holding my Connacher shares since 2002 and I was initially holding my share "long term" this mistake on my part caused me to lose out on selling my shares when they were worth around $6.00 in the past and a couple of years later I could have sold again at $4.50. I didn't sell and I should have. So this has forced me to change my outlook. I am positive on Connacher looking forward as far as the end of April 2011. I am confident that Connacher's share price will continue to go up incrementally for the rest of December 2010 and for most of January 2011. There is the buoyancy effect in the market in January which propels energy stocks higher in the early weeks of the new year. Then the share price IMHO will drop at the end of January. The share price will start going up again in March to a year high in April 2011 in my opinion. My expectation is that the Q-4 report will show a large rise in cash flow and Connacher will be very profitable.

1) Management is doing a great job expanding production right now at both the Great Divide and at Algar which will incrementally continue to grow monthly into April.

2) Management is applying new technology to the Great Divide (methane injection) into one well pad, and will shortly be injecting solvents into one well pad at Algar which will allow excess steam to be directed to lower performing well pairs which has the possibility of lowering SOR's and thus increasing production.

3) The 18th and 19th well pairs at the Great Divide are not fully producing yet as they have just recently come off their ramp up steaming phase so they will have increasing production going forward to April.

4) The differential has narrowed between WTI sweet crude and bitumen so Connacher's profit margin will be greater.

5) The refinery's profits, which payed for the refinery within it's first year of operation continues to add profit to Connacher's bottom line.

6) There is the chance that by selling off the non-conventional assets, which are a drain on Connacher's cash flow due to, workovers on the well's and redrilling and the maintenance of pipelines and facilities will end with the sale of these assets. And if there is no sale so what, Connacher will retain 2,700 + barrels of oil/natural gas production profits to add to Connacher's cash flow.

7) David Burrows was talking on BNN yesterday and he said that all of the oil sands companies share prices have been down over the last 8 months, so Connacher has not been unique in this respect.

8) UTS, Connacher's competitor for shareholder's to invest their money in is gone and OPTI, the other junior oilsands company which competes with Connacher for junior oilsands investors has had it's share value drop 70% so far this year http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/energy-resources/Opti+shares+sink+after+cuts+debt+ratings/3976580/story.html

9) I expect that the price of oil from January to April 2011 will edge up from it's current $88 a barrel to around $100 a barrel.

10) According to the Bryan Mills Iradesso iQ Quarter3 Report which just came out, Connacher's number of shares isn't excessive for its production. Connacher has 472,000,000 shares compared to Petrobank which has 4,286,218,000 shares, BlackPearl has 1,470,710,000 shares; MEG has 7,107,282,000 shares; and Southern Pacific resources has 548,641,000 shares and they will have to start raising funds for their drilling program and to build their oil sands plants. So in relative terms Connacher does not have an excessive number of shares compared to their junior oilsands competitors

So these are my reasons for being positive until the end of April 2011. After that I would be out of Connacher due to fact of the sell in May and go away evidence that I posted previously in the off topic forum:

http://agoracom.com/ir/Connacher/forums/off-topic/topics/423194-sell-inmay-and-go-away/messages/1388631#message

As I posted in a previous article Connacher may be profitable going towards it's expansion in 2012 but the predictions and forecasts here depend on a lot of ifs any one of which could change the picture for better or for worse.

Cheers; Scott