Normally for next year the sp should move upwards .Probably we can compare current situation with the start up from pod 1 when oil was moving up.Also from what I read in financial papers the overlay opinion for next year is not bad.

Base NAV from this PDF file for CLL is 1.51

Unrisked 2.66

Valuation Approach – NAV is our Preferred Method

According to these terms they are using the sp today is a buying opportunity with low risk.

• Our Base NAV is our evaluation of what we believe investors should be willing to pay for the
stock. We reserve the option of applying a multiple to our NAV to adjust for intangible
qualities as necessary; therefore, this Base NAV is the basis of our 12-month target price.
• Our Unrisked NAV reflects a potential upside valuation for the company, including unrisked
values for projects in various stages of the development or regulatory process and value for
additional resources that do not have development project definition. This methodology could
be thought of as a potential upside value as management continues to de-risk projects by
moving them through the regulatory and development cycle or a potential value for the
company in the event of a change of control event.
In general, we apply the following risk factors to projects in our Base NAV analysis:
• 100% Value – Assigned to projects that are on stream or projects that have received regulatory
approvals that we believe are moving forward into development with financing visible.
• 75% Value – Assigned to projects that have been submitted to the regulators and are in the
regulatory process. In some cases, we assigned a 75% value to projects that we expect to be
submitted to the regulatory process within the next six months.
• 50% Value – Assigned to projects that are expected to be submitted to the regulatory process
within the next 12 months.
• 0% Value – Assigned to projects that have questionable development due to company liquidity
or financing concerns.