RBC Report: Connacher's Pro's and Con's
posted on
Dec 20, 2010 06:52PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Collectively we all do a pretty good job discussing and analyzing available information about Connacher on this board. In terms of the Pro's and Con's contained in the RBC Report there is nothing here that we haven't predicted or foreseen.
The following information I copied from page 67 of the RBC Report:
Exhibit 65: Connacher - Pros and Cons
Pros
Producing Projects − Pod One and Algar are both on stream and producing.
Production Potential− Pod One, Algar and the Algar expansions have a combined stated production capacity
of 44,000 bbl/d at a 100% W.I. with Algar expansions already in the regulatory process.
In-Situ Development − In-Situ can be easier to sell to investors, especially from an
environmental perspective.
Divestiture of Conventional Assets − Sale of the bulk of conventional assets focuses
operations and reduces net debt.
Medium-Term Debt Maturities− The company's two larger debt issues mature following the next expected
expansion onstream date, which should help with refinancing.
Current Financial Liquidity − Sufficiently capitalized for ongoing operations through 2011.
Oil Price Hedges− Provide downside protection to cash flow, which is welcomed given high financial leverage.
Co-Gen − Increased reliability of power supply.
Evaluation Drilling − Understanding assets to look for the next stage of growth opportunity.
Catalyst Rich− The company has several potential material catalysts over the course of 2011 and 2012.
Source: Company reports and RBC Capital Markets
Cons
Pod One Production Performance − Pod One is producing at ~70% (+/-10%) of design capacity and we
believe it will miss 2010 target exit rates.
Facility Design − We are concerned that facilities have been undersized for steam
generation, thereby restricting production potential.
Downstream − We believe the downstream investment has been a negative return on
capital.
High Debt Leverage − Current debt level and cost of debt are high.
Maturity Date of Debentures − Debentures mature (and most likely will not be converted given $5.00/share conversion price) mid-way through expected project spend at Algar expansion, which introduces an unwelcomed financing risk.
It appears from examining the Con's that the next thing that we should expect from Connacher management is the sale of the downstream assets, in other words the MRC refinery in Montana at some point in the future to facilitate paying down debt and the expansion projects. The refinery seems to have been more profitable than many refineries in the USA in 2010, if you take it's relative size into consideration. Perhaps it is getting close to the time to sell, before the conditions of it's current profitability change. Connacher doesn't appear to need the refinery to hedge it's bitumen prices going forward especially if the price of oil continues to go up over the next couple of years. Connacher purchases very little diluent from the refinery and the refinery always requires money to replace or repair worn out vessels, units etc. which detracts ultimately from Connacher's cash flow.
Comments anybody on the pro's and con's?
Cheers; Scott