Welcome to the Connacher Oil and Gas Hub on AGORACOM

Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

Free
Message: Operational Update Details

Hi sharky - In answer to your question about why Connacher went to $1.88 last May, this drive was fueled by speculators who beleived that Connacher was going to bought out by a Chinese government oil company.

The problem now is that according to Deborah Yeldin, who wrote the following article in yesterday's Calgary Herald , that the Chinese have a new major source of oil from a new Russian super pipeline which may significntly slow down their takeovers in the Canadian oil sands. So if there are going to be any takeover rumours in the oilsands in 2011, most likely they will be from Korean or Indian national oil companies. There is also a huge problem according to this article of getting oil from the Alberta oilsands to Asia. Just building the XL pipeline to Houston while it will suppy a lot of dilbit to the USA, having only one major buyer for Canadian oil is a bad idea. Both the Canadian National Railroad, and the Canadian Pacific Railroad last year stated that it will be many years before the pipeline over the mountains can be built to Kitimat, British Columbia, if at all due to environmental concerns and aboriginal opposition, whereas they can provide a continuous pipeline for dilbit with steel wheels under it and they could move a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day of oil from the oil sands over the mountains to the coast for shipment to Asia. We also need to build a Canadian pipeline to Churchill, Manitoba, I have stated for years, to ship oil sands oil out of James Bay to Europe. This will become increasingly important as global warming makes Churchill, Manitoba a port open year round over the next decade.

As for Connacher's share price going to $1.80 or over in 2011, I think that this is possible in May, if the ramp up continues to proceed without any surprises, the new light oil wells show excellent prospects, and if Connacher makes an attempt to pay down some debt. I agree with Jurek that I don't think they will use the money from the divestiture to pay down any debt. Management just said that once in a previous press release but I believe that the statement was disingenuous. Also, the price of WTI oil has to go to $100 a barrel to get us the higher share price, and of course more speculation about a takeover. If these things hold true, then like last year I can see the share price going to $1.50 by the end of January then dropping due to a sell off in February and March and rising to $1.80 plus at the end of April and into May. After May forget it. The big sell off will return and knock the share price down. Paying down the debt appears to be the key to maintaining a higher share price. Otherwise other factors continue to knock the share price down.

Russia deals blow to Canadian oil

By Deborah Yedlin, Calgary Herald January 5, 2011 Comments (6)

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Photograph by: Alexey Druzhinin, AFP/Getty Images

Something very important happened in the oil world on Jan. 1, 2011 that should be a wake-up call for Canada's oilpatch and the country's politicians.

As the clocked ticked over into 2011, a new pipeline -- a spur off the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline -- began delivering 300,000 barrels a day of oil from Russia to China.

It may come as a surprise to many, but Russia seems to have realized long before Canada that having more than one market for its oil is a good idea because it diversifies risk.

The fact a pipeline is now operating -- in addition to the approximately 100,000 barrels a day that are also transported by rail from Russia to China -- means Russia is slowly but surely gaining a foothold into one of the largest energy-consuming nations on the planet.

Even better, from Russia's perspective, it means it isn't solely dependent on Western Europe to buy its oil.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was trumpeting just that as the pipeline opened its spigot.

This is yet another inflection point in the global energy picture; all paths are increasingly pointing eastward and Canada needs to pay attention.

"Think of it in these terms," suggested Robert Johnston of the Eurasia Group in Washington, D.C.

"Canada is to the United States in terms of oil supply as Russia is to China. In other words, Russia is very interested in supplying China because of the size of that market.

"And if Canada does not move into that market, it may find itself shut out," Johnston said during a visit to Calgary.

It appears Johnston's prediction is in the process of being fulfilled; Russia appears to have won the "first to market" race.

Not that this was entirely Russia's initiative. It also stems from China's quest for energy security.

Some might recall that in the months following the financial crisis, China was actively striking deals around the globe with oil-producing countries to provide loans in exchange for securing crude. One of those deals was a $25-billion "loans for oil" agreement that included the building of this pipeline spur from Russia to China.

With energy demand growing eight per cent annually, it's a safe bet China will continue to seek opportunities to boost what it receives from Russia, which has yet to crack the top five oil suppliers to that country.

This is has to be a wake-up call.

Canada's political leaders must take heed and move beyond the rhetoric. If Russia has figured it out -- and in fact done something constructive about it -- what's wrong with Canada?

There's certainly no shortage of arguments to support this.

Late last year, the U.S. government's energy envoy paid a visit to Alberta -- and unequivocally said the U.S. is serious about decreasing its dependence on oil.

Alberta Energy Minister Ron Liepert has more than once stated his concern regarding this province's dependency on one market and being 'landlocked in bitumen.' Meanwhile, Bruce Carson, the executive director of the Canada School of Energy and the Environment, has called the North American Free Trade Agreement " a blessing and a curse" because it has bred a sense of complacency. Former premier Peter Lougheed is also on the record advocating that Asia be developed as another market for Alberta's oil.

Basic economics says that two buyers instead of one for a scarce resource is usually better from a pricing perspective.

Here's something to chew on. Towards the end of the year, the price of Brent crude was trading above that of West Texas Intermediate. Why? Because there is a growing consensus that Brent is a better benchmark than WTI for reasons of supply and refining, which tend to impact the price. And Canada's production is tied to the WTI benchmark.

In a recent year-end interview, Scotiabank's vice-president of economics and commodity market specialist Patricia Mohr reiterated the importance of diversifying export markets for Alberta's oilsands from the perspective that it's not just good for Alberta, it's good for Canada because of the economic activity it generates across the country.

"It's commercially risky to rely on one market for our crude . . . and the growth in demand is going to come from the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore we need to develop the Prince Rupert option," she said.

Carson has said that the growth in Canada's energy sector is dependent upon "Canada's ability to engage . . . in international energy trade and development of new markets."

It's time to act. It's also time to face the potential roadblocks head-on. In December, Enbridge offered First Nations bands a 10 per cent equity interest in Gateway.

It was summarily rejected.

It's no secret many are holding their collective breaths on the negotiations that must take place with the First Nations whose lands Gateway will pass through.

But sometimes, issues in the national interest need to be handled differently.

The good news is that the time frame in which the U.S. will meaningfully decrease its oil consumption will not happen overnight. This means Canada has a window to exploit in order to build the necessary infrastructure -- physical, political and otherwise -- to open new markets.

This can translate into ensuring projects such as Enbridge's Northern Gateway get off the drawing board and into the ground, instead of suffering the same fate of the Mackenzie Valley pipeline and seeing Kinder Morgan move ahead with its plans for expansion. It can also mean a greater effort has to be made on the political front to open those new markets.

It's not exactly reassuring to hear from business types with extensive experience in China that the current federal government's lack of attention to China is putting Canadian companies interested in doing business there at a disadvantage.

Russia has thrown down the diversification gauntlet.

The time has come for Canada to respond.

Deborah Yedlin is a Herald columnist

dyedlin@calgaryherald.com

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Russia+deals+blow+Canadian/4061322/story.html#ixzz1AGEa3hFV

Cheers; Scott

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply