Connacher will prevail if Gran Tierra can unlock the value on the land that it now controls. If Gran Tierra's price doubles to $16.00 or goes to $20.00 a share over the next year and a half then Connacher can monetize it's Gran Tierra shares and pay down a sizeable part of the Senior Unsecured Convertible Debentures which are due on June 30, 2012. To me that's how I will evaluate this deal. One and a half years from now.

The PDP takeover is typical of great junior energy companies in Canada. Many juniors have great land and mineral resources but that isn't enough. It's management, management, management. You need a phenomenal management team to bring the resources to production and success. To me the Gran Tierra/Petrolifera deal is just another deal in the oil patch. It's typical. It happens every day. Junior oil and gas companies: with great resources, underfunded, with mediocre management are all prime takeout targets. The successful management teams at Crescent Point, Baytex and Gran Tierra swallow up the little juniors and develop their resources. The strongest survive and make their shareholders rich.

Bill Harris said that only about 10% of the management teams in the oil and gas business are phenomenal and that it is your job as an investor to do your research and locate that 10% who are the best managers, and invest your money in their companies. Eric Nuttal said a month ago that he studied all of the companies that he has invested in and lost money on over the last five years and in every case his research indicated that it's because the management was not top echelon.

So I'm giving Dick Gusella a year and a half before I pass judgement on this deal. The old fox still has time to prove all of his naysayers wrong.

Cheers; Scott