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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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May 16, 2011 12:09AM

Hi Nick

I wish you a good adventure and fishing period on the Lake and maybe you can catch some big fish.I would love to do that as well.Saw some vids on you tube about that Lake.

Talking about an investment in CLL I think you could see it on 2 sides.

As pure investment you must take a long time frame and not the past years up and down moves.At current sp a buy is not a big risk in light of a take over situation or improvements of production in time .The sp is holding down because of the debt situation.We have discussed many times how they gonna move forwards because they don't have the needed cash for that.The move down was a sign something was coming up.Question is when will the financing end and at which point on production they will generate enough cash to go on their own.But IMO the real value is higher then the sp we see now.The spike we hoped to see in early May is gone.Also the markets itself are stepping back.

As long time investment CLL bought at these levels can be a good one .When they can achieve their plans to upgrade Algar to 34.000 bpd + then we can see a lot of cash coming in but in the meantime we have to live with a lot of patience .I read some slides of the anual report and they have some concerns about shareholders opinion.But if you read closely they more focussing on the long term period when they have the production levels reached on Algar at around 44.000 in total.But to get there we face some more up and down moves until all is set in plans in terms of financing and construction to achieve that output.

So if someone is a long time investor with some patience then buy and don't look for 4 years until they have achieved the planned output.

For those following the short time moves it's better we buy and sell on the swings.


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