It's hot outside, and it's the long drawn out days of summer. There's little action on this board. So I've decided to write my prediction for what I see in store for Connacher over the rest of 2011. I have to preface my prediction with the disclaimer that I am not an analyst nor have I written any books on the oilsands. I've just read a lot and learned alot about the oilsands and bitument business on this board over the last number of years. So here goes. Take it for what it's worth. There has been a lot of action in the oilsands recently which could have a profound effect on Connacher's oilsands business. As you may or may not be aware OPTI was taken out by a subsidiary of CNOOC Limited (the largest oil production company in China) which was stated in a news release on July 20, 2011. This could change the dynamics in the oilsands in the near vicinity of Connachers SAGD operations at Great Divide and Algar. This deal will now mean that CNOOC will get OPTI's 35% of the Long Lake SAGD facility and the upgrader with NEXEN owning the other 65%. So what does this have to do with Connacher? I'll tell you what I foresee could fall into place. The Long Lake SAGD Project was designed to produce 72,000 bbl/ day of bitumen and the upgrader is capable of processing 72,000 bbl / day of bitmen. However, as many of you are aware, due to problems at the SAGD facility, only about 30,000 bbl / day of bitumen is currently being supplied to the upgrader. So NEXEN has been buying bitumen from Connacher and JACOS and other nearby SAGD projects to keep feeding the unnused capacity at its upgrader. So much so that in fact NEXEN did a joint venture with JACOS within the last year to become a 50% partner on JACOS' s expansion project which is currently being built to increase JACOS current production by another 35,000 bbl / day when it is completed. We all know how reliable future bitumen production forcasts are in the SAGD business don't we. So there may be a possibility that CNOOC Ltd. may be interested in becoming the joint venture partner that Connacher is looking for to fund the expansion project at Algar. It may start with CNOOC buying the Halfway Creek property that Connacher currently has for sale. If CNOOC or NEXEN purchase this property it may be a good indicator of a joint venture to come for Connacher's Algar project. The other possibility for a joint venture partner for Connacher might be for a company currently with an upgrader to do a joint venture with Connacher in order to secure part of or all of Connacher's bitumen production for the next 30 years in order to keep feeding their upgrader.
This is my prediction. Take it for what it' s worth.
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On another note. The last blog entitled: Aggressive price prediction, I think contains a flaw in the analysis of Michael Murphy. I think that there is a flaw in relying on the fast growth of Connacher's conventional oil production to increase Connachers share price to $5.00 a share by the the end of 2011 because Connacher does not have the facilities in place to get more than the current 1,000 bbl/ day of conventional oil and gas liquids to the pipeline. If you read Connachers last new release they basically say that they are currently in the process of building the infrastructure that they need on the newly acquired lands to hook up any new wells to the nearby pipelines to transport the light oil and gas liquids to market. Connacher stated that the facilities that they are building will be completed in 2012, but current conventional production will be limited to 1,000 bbl / day until 2012, so I assume that any new conventional production will be locked in until then. So we need to be realistic here.
Cheers; Scott