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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: More forward thinking and Q2

Aug 10, 2011 05:34PM
1
Aug 11, 2011 01:30AM

Aug 11, 2011 10:10AM

What a shocker with Nadal and Roger Federer.

My tennis is actually going well. My Achilles feels good (after one year of pain) and my heel pain (plantar fasciitis) is gone. Play 4 to 5 times a week to take advantage of this nice weather we have recently in BC. The only problem is my wife. She is a tennis addict so we do not see each other to much this days.

About Q2 CLL financial report:

Actually as expected is not to bad.

Two week ago in my post I estimated Q2 CLL average bitumen prices at $54/bbl . Today they confirm the numbers at $54.49 (Q2 WTI average at $102/bbl).

As predicted 20% increase in Bitumen pricing is solely responsible for 5 cents per share of cash flow.

Remember this pricing formula I PM to you? It works very well.

Average bitumen production was 13,360 bbl/d. I was overly optimistic with my number above 14,000/bbl/d

Refinancing charges of $64 million (were in the range of my estimate of 10 to 15 cents/share and were responsible for the earning loses.

The conclusion of the above is:

CLL need WTA Oil above $90/bbl (Bitumen ~ $50/bbl) to pay the bills including Operational Capital Expenditure describe by CLL as Sustaining and maintenance capital.

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