Hi Sharky,

Nice post. You ask about possible options and take over target price.

Here are the recent price target downgrades from last 2 months:

CIBC from $1.3 down to $1.1

RBC from $1.5 down to $1

CSFB from $1.8 down to $1.25

UBS from $1.45 to $1.35

Scotia Capital from $1.6 down to $1

All target above are based on the Risked NAV per share (usually 2P+ 2C).

About the Take-Over or JV option. IMO it will not be easy to find the investor for any of the above. Just think about it.

What return on your investment would you expect to get for your $1.6 billion take-over or $700 million JV. Would 15% or $240 million per year be fair for taking this risk?

Look at the banks. With no risk Banks are getting 8.6% (77.4 millions) from CLL on 900 million loan.

The $1.6 billion take-over investment will never get $200 million annual return on this bitumen production. CLL is not making any Free Cash Flow at 6% Royalties. What will happen when the Royalties will move to post payout rate of 30%?

You ask why with production of ~15,000 BOE CLL SP is now much lower then when we had no much production at all.

Beside the share dilution IMO there were a lot of investors like Rebel who read the headline only and ignore CLL Financial Reports.

The hype based on the headlines and the presentations made some believe that the company will be the cash cow when they go to full production of 20,000 bbl. The reality was different then the expectation and Mr Market found new level for CLL SP.

You showed as previously that the only way you make money here is by trading.

I am just hoping that recent rumours and positive Bitumen price will get us to 80 cent level.

Good luck, Jurek.