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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Is $1/sh offer possible?

Hi Sharky,

Thanks for the reply and very good post.

In regards to declining bitumen production.

POD1 was place on steam in Q4 2007 and ramp-up to over 8000 bbl/d in December 2008 (slide 13 Dec 2008 presentation - actually this is very interesting and nostalgic material).

After 4 years of production at POD1 we have more wells, ESP pumps and most of the POD 1 cash flow invested back to Production Sustainability Expenditure.

The net result is ~6300 bbl/d production in Nov 2011(slide 13 Nov 2011 presentation). This is 20% drop despite over $100 million sustainability CAPEX which add dramatically to Total cost per barrel (not included in reported operational cost).

If you add Algar we have the operation run with 67% productivity reflected on the total cost. Personally I think this is all related to CLL oil reservoir . It seems that management is trying all what is available in technology field and hard cash with no much respond from the ground.

There is a good chart for SAGD+ which show that you have to have 90% solvent recovery to get your return on investment. Hopefully this can be achieve by Connacher, otherwise SAGD+ could be a costly exercise.

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