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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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According to a discussion on SH about a decline rate I found this old hart from 2011 I guess.Then indeed production was around 14.000 bpd.while current is 11.500 I suppose?

So question is while they are working on new well pairs for extra production the declining could of set their efforts.I didn't follow the past year the company so well so I don't have a clue what the reason is for a 2.500 lower output?Maybe you know it.

That's probably the main reason why the stock felt so low.From what I understand is they need that higher output + a good bitumen price.So far on the news we hear about possible better economic condotions and that is a good one and could sustain the current prices but I would like to hear what the real cause was why production has slowed down to current rate.SAGD is a tecnic that IMO is still in devellopment stage and it's mostly done because the scrapping tecnic like some other have done is becmong under protest due to the impact on the outlook .So now they try to get it out without destroying the surface but IMO pumping solvents into the ground is something people don't see but could have impact in the future and causing other problems.

So for us shareholders we need to see a climb in production levels but one that can maintain this level instead of dropping back.As we whitnessed past years with their first amount of well pairs they never had obtained the design capacity so they had to drill more well pairs.So it cost the company extra money .Because DG took the gamble to put such a large debt burden on the shoulder ,probably he thought it was eassy to get out 16.000 bpg with 2 pods the real thing is they are just a little over 10.000 with 2 instead of the 20.000 design capacity.

I really would like to get an answer why the production felt back.If the decline is an important issue then how can we be sure that their plans to bring more pods on line can outrun the decline rate.If they can ramp up in the future faster then a decline rate and bitumen prices remain stable or better higher then the financial issue of refinancing can have less impact or better can disappear from the screen.So at current situation this will be the trigger for a higher sp in the coming months.The more cash they can earn by higher price + output the better the situation is to meet debt situation and the more shareholders will take risk to invest and pushing the sp higher.

IMO CLL remains a risky stock and I hope this can be solved.Let's cross our fingers and they will not be forced for another financial deal by issueing new shares.

This was the chart I've stored on my computer

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