Secrets to succeeding at the growth-stock game
posted on
May 18, 2008 08:32PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Peter Hodson, Financial Post Published: Saturday, May 17, 2008
Still, you might be tempted to dip your toe back into growth stock territory. Certainly, valuations are tempting; The Growth Index is now a full 15 Price-Earnings multiple points cheaper than the Value index.
But before you buy any growth stocks, you must be sure you fit the profile of a growth investor. Don't be a value investor that hops aboard the growth train. That's asking for trouble, and you will likely lose a few nights' sleep, as growth stocks are inherently more volatile than value names.
To help you out in assessing what type of an investor you are, here are some characteristics you need to possess in order to be a successful growth stock investor:
First, as a growth investor, you must be able to handle extreme volatility. Growth stocks can go up fast, but the beta works both ways. Be prepared for a roller-coaster ride. One of the best --but toughest -- ways to handle this is to simply ignore the volatility. Focus on fundamentals. If they are OK, then your stock should be OK too. If the business is solid, the stock should recover.
Similar to the above, you need to truly invest for the long term. This doesn't mean one year. Give your growth companies time to do their thing. Sometimes, it takes a company time to gain traction. This does not necessarily indicate a problem.
The biggest hurdle you need to overcome is the tendency to sell too early.
It is best to ride your winners. If you have found the next greatest company, let it run. Do not set price targets. A fast-growing company tends to blow through all targets anyway. If you believe in a company and the fundamentals stay strong, stick with it.
Tied into not selling too early, you require, with growth stocks, the vision to see what the potential could be. Look at what the company could do if things worked out well. Note the speed at which the company is growing in relation to its own industry. If it is growing faster than its industry, then something good is happening. If your company keeps up its above-average growth rate, it might one day dominate its industry. How's that for upside? Remember that research analysts have a bad tendency to be conservative, so they don't look too bad if they are wrong. You as an investor need to think differently.
Not to get too excited here, so here's an offset: As a growth investor, you need to admit when you are wrong. Notwithstanding the need to allow stocks to mature, if your company stops growing, misses earnings, lies, cheats or otherwise messes up, it is time to pull the trigger and sell. In my view, you shouldn't stick around and wait for the recovery. It is far, far better to buy the company back after the recovery has already occurred. Sure, it will cost you more, but think of how much money you would have saved if the recovery never happens.
Finally, if you are going to be a growth investor, then you can't fret over valuations. Fretting over valuations is, naturally, a value-investor's job. As a growth investor, if you have found the greatest company, don't nickel and dime your way out of a fortune. Truly great companies are expensive. Truly great companies stay expensive. Your great company will likely hit the new-high list, day after day after day. Higher valuations lead to higher volatility, but if you have read up to this point, then you know not to worry the volatility.
There you have it. If you can handle the points made above, it might be time to go growth-stock shopping.
-Peter Hodson is a senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management