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Message: Crude oil marches north of $140

Crude oil marches north of $140

posted on Jun 29, 2008 01:02AM

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...

Crude oil marches north of $140

$150 'in the gunsights,' says analyst

Shaun Polczer, Calgary Herald

Published: Saturday, June 28, 2008

Even as American environmentalists and some politicians are trying to condemn Alberta's oilsands as "dirty," the world appears hungrier than ever for all forms of crude after oil shot as high as $143 US per barrel Friday.

After setting yet another trading record of $142.99, benchmark U.S. oil prices settled at $140.21 in New York, up 57 cents on the day. Analysts say $150 now seems all but inevitable.

"I think $140 is sort of a psychological level, but it's just become another number in this whole oil price runup -- $150 remains in the gunsights," said Martin King, a commodities researcher with FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary.

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Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said he wants to use low-carbon fuel in government vehicles.

Oil continues to climb despite rising inventories and signs of softening demand for gasoline in the world's largest consuming market south of the border.

"That's the part of the argument that's been thrown out the window," King added. "The U.S. demand slowdown has become irrelevant. That means it's (the oil price) being determined elsewhere, in places like India and China."

Oil's gain sent the resource-heavy Toronto Stock Exchange higher even as stock markets around the world tumbled to three-month lows.

The TSX main board gained 63 points to close at 14355.21 while the Dow Jones industrials shed more than 100 points to close at 11346.51.

On Thursday, CIBC energy guru Jeff Rubin raised his 2009 oil price forecast to $150 and $200 in 2010 even while other analysts seemed perplexed as to which way to go.

In an e-mail obtained by the Herald, Boston-based Societe Generale analyst Ian Lyons begged for clarification after the global research house published two conflicting price forecasts -- one at $60 and one $150 -- in the same week.

"Just not sure which 'goal post' to pick: Trying not to confuse clients, burn our credibility . . . please help," he wrote.

Frederic Lasserre, SG's global head of commodities research, said in a note he expects regulators in the U.S. and Europe to crack down on speculators that have been blamed for driving up prices.

"We expect that the authorities, first in the U.S. and then in Europe, will take measures designed to restrict the ability of investors to enter commodity markets, probably by the end of this year, if not earlier," he wrote, while discounting the usefulness of such a drastic step. Through history, speculation has often been blamed for commodity price increases that have "almost always" had a physical origin, he said.

"The impact on prices will depend on the severity of these measures. At best, the authorities can hope for a correction in prices.

"The bullish trend is not the consequence of speculation, but instead reflects the fact that commodities are the asset class that now finds itself at the junction of the three major challenges for the 21st century: population growth, globalization and climate change."

The confusion comes as an association of U.S. mayors earlier this week adopted a resolution calling for the reduction of "dirty" fuels from Alberta's oilsands, which are seen as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming.

American presidential candidate Barack Obama weighed in on the issue by endorsing a low-carbon fuel standard for federal government vehicles. Likewise, Republican John McCain has supported steps for the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, even while attempting to cozy up to Canadian politicians in Ottawa.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) responded to the broadside by firing off a response to Miami Mayor Manuel Diaz, who hosted the conference that produced the resolution.

Greg Stringham, the group's vice-president of markets and fiscal policy, said the mayors' resolution got more coverage in Canada than it did south of the border, illustrating the extent to which Canadians are concerned about the environmental impact of what is rapidly becoming an important global oil supply source.

He described the debate as healthy and constructive, while noting Canada is set to become the world's swing producer as the oilsands make a growing contribution to global supply.

"We're very sensitive about it because it's our future," he said.

spolczer@theherald.canwest.com


© The Calgary Herald 2008
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