Suncor, Canada's No. 2 oil sands producer, has forecast that daily output at its site near Fort McMurray, Alberta, would average between 275,000 and 285,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year.

However production in the first five months of 2008 averaged just 225,000 bpd. June output was likely lower than that due to a longer-than-planned maintenance turnaround in part of the operation -- from mid-May to June 24.

To meet the current forecast, the company would have to produce more than 310,000 bpd from June through the end of December, and some analysts doubt the company will be able to reach that goal.

"We think they are going to have some trouble hitting (the guidance) for oil sands production they've put out there," said Chris Feltin, an analyst at Tristone Capital. "The turnaround took longer than expected and they are going to have to hit absolutely everything for the remainder of the year to hit the (guidance) range and we're unsure they can do that."

Suncor has already cut its production target once this year. In April, it trimmed the top end of its range to the current 285,000 bpd from 300,000 because of operational problems caused by frigid weather and power outages.

Now some expect the company to again revise its targets, perhaps when it reports its second-quarter earnings on July 24.

"It will be very challenging for them to make their numbers," said William Lacey, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. "The guidance has to come down ... and I think they'll take it down ... with their (second-quarter) results. Don't wait till the third quarter."

Suncor declined comment on what it said was only speculation. "We review our guidance as a matter of course at every quarter," said Brad Bellows, a spokesman for the company. "We'll look at whether we need to update it."

Suncor's May maintenance shutdown was used to add new equipment to its facilities to boost output at the site to about 350,000 bpd, 100,000 more than it had been previously capable of producing. However, the company has not yet said when it expects to begin producing at the new maximum level.

"It will take some time to bring it on," Bellows said. "There will be a ramp-up period but we haven't set a target date for when we expect to be regularly producing 350,000 barrels per day.

Suncor shares rose $2.49 to close at $58.84 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday.

© Thomson Reuters 2008