Jeff Rubin has a simple message for Albertans worried about plunging oil prices: chill out.

In fact, the outspoken chief economist for CIBC World Markets is adamant that oil prices, which have slid from record highs of more than $147 US a barrel in mid-July to the low-$90s, are predestined to return to and stay above triple-digit values -- perhaps even testing the $200 mark in a year or two.

And while Rubin is known for making unconventional prognostications on everything from the Canadian dollar to commodity prices, industry observers say the economic convulsions now gripping global financial markets aside, his analysis of the future direction of oil prices is right on the money.

"He's fundamentally, absolutely, correct," intoned former Alberta energy minister Murray Smith, now a member of the TD Securities energy advisory board following Rubin's bombastic speech at the Global Business Forum in Banff, Alta., this past week.

"We're on the same page," added Peters and Co. chairman Mike Tims. "That's how we see it."

This is, of course, heartening news for Albertans who have been trying to decipher how the subprime mortgage crisis unfolding around the globe -- but emanating from the United States -- might play out in the oilpatch.

With energy stocks being savaged on North American markets along with just about every other sector in recent weeks, and concerns about the impact of soaring cost overruns on oilsands projects on people's minds, that's perfectly understandable.

And while oil prices appear to have have strengthened, the rapid decline from record highs has clearly unnerved ordinary Albertans, and dare we say even some oilpatch veterans. With good reason. We're in uncharted economic waters.

Toss in fears that the current economic crisis might evolve into a global recession that could dampen demand for oil and hence cast a pall over the oilpatch -- and in particular the oilsands, where this year some $20 billion in capital expenditures are slated to occur -- and it's panic stations across the province.

That would be wrong-headed thinking, according to Rubin.

For starters, he points out that the growth of new world oil supplies are constrained and the oil already discovered will continue to be depleted at an eye-opening rate.

More important, perhaps, those are barrels of highly desirable, lighter crude that is easy to refine. If they are replaced, it will be with marginal oil that is much less desirable.

That in turn drives the cost of refining higher, and before you know it, the floor for world oil prices has to rise, according to Rubin.

"In short," he said, "world oil supply isn't going to grow much [in the future], but it will become more expensive."

There's a lot more to Rubin's theory, of course.

But for Canadians, the key tidbits are that the U.S., our primary export market, is going to become even more dependent on us. Not only is their ability to supply their own demands diminishing as well-known basins such as the Gulf Coast begin to show diminishing returns, but projected replacement supplies from places such as the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve are decades away from becoming a reality.

At the same time, other key U.S. suppliers such as Mexico and Venezuela have, to put it politely, issues. Within the next four or five years, for example, Rubin predicts Mexico "will no longer be exporting oil to the United States." As for America's relationship with Venezuela, suffice to say it's not likely to improve so long as strongman Hugo Chavez is calling the shots -- and there is no reason to believe that is about to change anytime soon.

What does it all mean?

Good things for the oilpatch by and large. Without a doubt, demand for production from the oilsands will continue to grow in the United States and elsewhere -- even if, as a result of the credit crunch that is sure to follow this week's machinations in the investment-banking world, some projects are temporarily shelved.

And at triple-digit prices, conventional explorers will also be chomping at bit, so to speak, to find more oil.

Which is why -- as difficult as it may be -- we need to be sanguine about what lies ahead for the oilpatch.