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Message: China GDP and OIL

China GDP and OIL

posted on Feb 25, 2009 08:28AM

Hi Lynn

Finally I found few moments to get back to you on the Correlation GDP to Oil Consumption.

If you look on the Big Picture you have to look at the Energy Correlation to GDP before you look at the OIL.

I think we can all agree that the growth of GDP require more Energy to be supply for growing economy.

One of the two main components of the Energy system which is essential for the economy is Power(electricity) and OIL which is used in the industrial production , transport (refined product) and heating.

It is all integrated system which you can describe and quantified by numbers like how many Tera or Gigajules of energy is needed to sustain or growth GDP per 1 million citizens. This is will differ with level of industrialization of the specific country.

Comparing Sweden with China is radicals. The main objective of the study (CLEAN PEACE) you posted is to prove that we have to cut on air pollution.

In Sweden Hydro and Nuclear is responsible for 100% of Power generation. All most 100% oil is consumed by industry and transport.

In China 60% of OIL is used to generate Power. Only 18% is used for consumption. As i posted this trend is reversing dramatically and new (over 500) coal-fired power Plants and 50 nuclear reactors is changing the structure of oil use.

Nuclear and Coal will be the main component in the energy complex supplying the Economy and making the growth of the GDP possible.

OIL which will not be needed in the Power generation system will or can be used on the growing consumption. You see, Chinese Planers have to think about growth sustainability. Swedish scientist can comfortably concentrate on clean air, peace and prosperity for chosen few.

Last year Henry Groope said that China does not need to increase their oil import for another 8 years. He had a big smile when he was ask about Hedge Funds pumping Oil Bubble on the "so call Chino-India growth explosion".

From my previous post:

It is estimated that due to the structure of Chinese economy and their long term energy policy they will not need one more barrel of oil for the next 8 to 10 years.

Their electricity generation system is dramatically switching form OIL to Coal and nuclear source which will more then offset the small by our standard use of OIL by transportation sector.

In US and Europe over 70% consumption of oil is refine for gasoline. In China only 18%. 60% is generating the electricity.

Over the next 8 years China is adding 572 coal-fired power Plants and 50 nuclear reactors which dramatically reduces the use of Oil in this sector.

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