Movements for Oct 26
posted on
Oct 31, 2011 03:59PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Just a follow up on that post on SH etc. One of the members who was supposed to be at the briefing was not able to attend. That took some of the edge off the potential for buying last week. The other projections still hold.
What's new in my thinking is a survey of the sentiment shows cracks forming. People are getting annoyed with the company yet again. If we don't get news this week there will probably be a sell off. You heard me right, a sell off. The people who will depart, and probably buy INT (and take a loss), are 50k-60k gamblers. There's enough of them to drop the sp but who can blame them. We are months over due for results and nothing came from the show in New Orleans. We went there empty handed as we always do at shows and our speakers were preaching to the chior. Little new blood attended. I can understand people thinking something is wrong with the management or thinking the drilling results came back poor. And so they will begin to sell this week believing that Santa will come before the BFS does. It will be a loss of confidence as witnessed some month back.
This could mean 15 to 20 cents for us. Think about selling mid week and buying Friday. Obviously, don't sell too much. I think these people will get caught with trough down around the ankles as it were. I think we will get a major announcement.
I think the general rabble expect the JV to take months of agonizing negotiations. Instead what will emerge is a fully blow deal. The patterns of the company suggest the silence and delays are deliberately done. Yes, this befefits the insiders and longs who parse every letter. I don't have a problem with that. Should these events take hold I will sell 60k shares and ride to Friday then buy them back. We should see the signal in various forms. Watch the pesimism increase on the SH posts and keep tuned to the people you talk too via FB or by what ever other methods you use. If the sentiment doesn't improve by the end of tomorrow there's a good chance no news is coming for a while. Yes, they posted results on a Friday but that was a have to and not a want to. That in itself suggest deliberate stalling. There's only so much you can do to stall.
So picture this. The company doesn't give us any results for 2 weeks. Then out comes the BFS. Following this we get one hole after another of good data. The people who sold are a day behind because they don't hang on every word so they come in behind us. That got to make for a tidy profit.
I think this is what's really afoot. No one at the NO show is buying! Same old same old they say. Ya, the BFS might come this year but given the company's track record of missing 99.4% of their own self imposed deadlines what's the rush. Let investor fatuige drop the price then buy your million shares. Beside, there's still a lot of dumping for taxes to take place. Some will sell for xmass money. This will make for good buying. I think they will rue the day those thoughts entered their minds.
We know that thousands of meters of core hit the assay rooms. We know that all the deadlines that can't be missed are looming. (Most of them being professional and not contractual). We know that tax implications for the insiders are driving the timing. We know Elmer was stepping into the high grades because that's one thing he really can control.
Elmer is obviously not pleased about the total share float. 400 million is a lot but this is what he was handed. A lot of these manouvers are to get insider share counts up. At some point they could buy back shares to reduce the pool but it's so late in the game. So they just want to get as many as they can. I notice Elmer can only chickle about the number of shares out there so it makes sense for them to try get more insider control. This is why the company does not care about share price. They know roughly what they are getting at the end of the day. They know it will (did) take time and they used that to their advantage. Those of us who've been here for a year or better understand this and take advantage of it too.
On a side note. Elmer normally takes 3 days on the hill for months end. If it goes beyond that much more we will have to question if he took a detour or did something really astounding keep him there.