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Message: And Japan expands

Well, some positive signs from the Japanese economy. They experienced GDP expansion during the third quarter, the equivalent of six per cent on an annualized rate.

People forget that the forecast is for modest global GROWTH for the next year or two. A European recession may be unavoidable but China, India and Brazil are hot. If economies like the U.S. and Japan can show a little upside, things probably won't be so bad.

(Oh, and let me add, it's so nice to have proper formatting again.)

Economy in Japan Shows Signs of Strength

By HIROKO TABUCHI Published: November 13, 2011

TOKYO — Japan’s economy grew at a 6 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, signaling a strong recovery after the devastating tsunami in March. Still, a slowing global economy and a stubbornly strong yen cloud the outlook for Japan, the world’s third-largest economy.

Helped by a rebound in exports and consumption, the gross domestic product expanded 1.5 percent in the three months through September, compared with the previous quarter, numbers released by the Cabinet Office showed Monday. The widely expected uptick, equivalent to an annualized rate of 6 percent, was the first expansion in the Japanese economy in four quarters.

The rebound underscores the speed at which Japanese industry has been able to get back on its feet after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, rebuilding factories and re-establishing supply chains severed by the destruction.

Still, economists also worry that the punishingly strong yen of recent months as well as weak growth in major trading partners, like the United States and China, will take a toll on Japanese exports. Because global investors see the yen as a safe haven in times of global economic turmoil, its value has climbed to historic highs in recent weeks amid fears over Europe’s debt crisis. A strong yen hurts the competitiveness of Japanese exports and erodes the value of exporters’ repatriated earnings.

Government intervention in currency markets to try to weaken the yen has been unable to reverse its rise.

Some economists say the Japanese economy may backtrack again in the final quarter of 2011, as exports take a further hit from soft demand worldwide.

Japan’s central bank will begin a two-day policy meeting Tuesday to discuss measures to prop up the country’s recovery. Last month, it expanded an asset-purchase program to increase liquidity in the economy.

The government is also spending heavily to support post-tsunami reconstruction. Earlier this month, the lower house of parliament approved a 12 trillion yen ($155 billion) spending package aimed at kick-starting recovery on the ravaged northeast coast of the country, bringing total spending pledged so far to 18 trillion yen ($233 billion).

But Japan is already saddled with public debt more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy.

Unlike with Italy or Greece, however, investor confidence in Japan’s government bonds remains high, allowing the country to continue borrowing at low rates for the time being.

The Japanese economy “rebounded impressively at the beginning of the summer,” Masamichi Adachi, an economist for JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo, said in a note. “Since then, the momentum of the recovery has slowed markedly.”

A version of this article appeared in print on November 14, 2011, on page B3 of the New York edition with the headline: Economy In Japan Shows Signs Of Strength.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/14/business/economy-in-japan-shows-signs-of-strength.html

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