Squishybananas. Correct, no one knows what the next 4 yrs will bring. Correct, the Fording coal deal looked like a disasterous decision shortly after it was made.

However, the Fording decision turned out to be great given the current conditions and money being made. I can't remember which of the Teck presentations from Don Lindsay it was, but he said a couple of times that they don't look at the prices in the short term but how the long term will play out. He said they like longer projects that spread themselves over the cycles.

I think Teck learned a lot from the Fording decision. I think they learned that leadership takes discipline, outlook and confidence in the fundementals of a project.

To me, the Fording decision was an example of good, ballsy leadership that adds shareholder value in the long run. Sure, they may want to avoid getting spread so thin as that decision at the time.

As big as we hope CUU & SC to be, it is not nearly as big as some of the other projects Teck has in its plans and if a worse case scenario happens, it won't cannibalize the Teck mothership.

This Fording scenario has been repeatedly brought up as an example as to why Teck won't back in or will be low-balling in an offer. I see it as completely the opposite.

Keep in mind that the Fording 'disaster' at the time was due to the 2008 crash which followed the acquisition. That could happen again or it could not. Teck will assign a probability and consequence to another crash and look at how that 'ripple' will affect their business in the decades to follow.

Because it might happen again does not mean they should do nothing and wait it out. That would not be smart in the long long term as the less risk adverse compete for projects.

It is a tough decision but it isn't based on simply the current situation and outlook for the next 2-3 yrs. It is a full on strategic decision about the next 10-30 years.

jmho

C.