Re: Quadra FNX takeover
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 06, 2011 06:31PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
One major difference between QUX and CUU is that the former is a producer, with steady revenue and the latter is an explorer. Valuation for the two must necessarily be different.
For QUX, the share price reflects the income stream and the buy out price would likely be tied to the share price. For CUU, the valuation is much more difficult and there are several alternatives in valuation; e.g. NPV which reflects the future projected cash flow or earnings, or metal value in the ground. In CUU's case, there is one more complication; the BFS would only be restricted to SC which represents only some 3% of the total; the rest of the properties are much less defined in terms of mineral resources.
To try to use the buy out premium on CUU is a bit unfair given the above difference. Prospekt is right in saying it's a bit to early to try to nail down the buy out price. But to say the buy out would be tied to the share price would be a bit unfair.
Webgog, with his extensive knowledge, believe it should be at least $7. I cranked out a NPV number based on the best available data and I arrived at $5.6 for SC. Vette and others have also used different approach and from what I can remember, most arrived at a number anywhere between $3 and $7.
I do believe CUU is worth at least $7; but much of that is relatively unproven and I'm sure TCK would try to low ball it. Anything in between is fine, although $7 would make me the happiest! JMO GLTA!