Re: CUU - Top Ten Questions and answers
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 14, 2011 03:01PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Thanks Webgogs for going to the effort of this. I've done something like this in the past and it is more challenging than it looks to get a hour or more conversation down into accurate, succinct notes. Well done. I'm glad you stuck to the points and left out a lot of the conjecture - I always read your conjecture about 20 different ways LOL!
I could not help but have a few thoughts... Maybe Web could elaborate on some thoughts and questions... TIA
The top ten questions:
1. What are the benefits are of being on the Liard board, and is someone form Xtrata on the board? This is being viewed as a cherry for you and as a way to smooth the transition for the JV. Can you comment on this? Someone found out about this appointment and incorrectly started a rumour yesterday that you were leaving cuu! (about 5 days ago this started circulating through word of mouth.)
A.This is a cherry but it is more about making the transition smooth. At the end of the day this makes the most sense.
My take: A huge benefit is more facetime between Elmer and Xstrata. I can't help but think that Xstrata will be getting its ear talked off by ES about Schaft. Xstrata, with its NPI, already has some risk free skin in the game.
This might be enough of a toe in the door for Xstrata to actually start investing in a piece of the Northern Triangle or BC. Xstrata doesn't have any operations in western Canada. Meanwhile politicians in SA and elsewhere are trimming down profits from operations in their jurisdictions and the message of declining Copper sources remains constant.
2. Are you leveraging the contract with Teck by being meticulous? I.e. delaying the bfs to have more time to think about the next plan of attack and making more acqusitions or spending on applicable expenses.
A.Yes and no. Yes in the sense that these are applicable approved expenses so if it benefits us all the better and no in the sense that this is not a tactic. Both parties want to try get the new holes in the BFS without an unreasonable delay.
My Take: Both parties are cooperating to realize the best BFS possible in the near term. Cuu is applying pressure to TCK by the mere fact that each drill (say about ~$1M) will end up costing TCK up to $4M. At some point the need for more drills (or reports & other qualified expenses) will cross over the practicality and efficiency of adding more drills or reports at 4x cost. Pressure and cooperation at the same time.
3. The drill results suggest that we have anywhere from 300-500 thousand (napkin calculations by the retail) more tonnes. Are we in a position to maximize shareholder return or do we need to consider delaying longer to prove this up? What do you think is best?
A.It is enough data to make it an acceptable negotiation point with Teck. Teck is most pleased. You could look at it as being 2.5 to 3 billion in revenue. Going back to 408 this new data included make the total size far greater than our napkin calculations. Essentially, we could be doubling the starter pit. (My words)
My Take: I think that was my napkin saying 500k Tonnes LOL...
I don't understand the (WG or ES?) comment: "You could look at it as being 2.5 to 3 billion in revenue." Look at what? The new data or the complete set of old and new data? Revenue? Are we talking net revenue LOM or NPV or ... Sorry, I am confused.
4. At what point do we say we have diluted as much as we can? There is a general consensus that we would get the most value by starting the Teck clock now.
A.The drilling is done. The burn rate is as low as it can get and we have enough in the coffers to conclude the year and start next years work. We have a number of prepaid expenses that will continue to provide data and reports. We will plan 2012 just because this is 100% our project until such time as Teck completes the “Earn Back In”. This is an important driver in all our workings.
My Take: We might expect a 2012 drilling plan so that we are prepared for whatever might happen next year and keep adding value. Maybe a Titan crew of mountain goats to finish those steep, nasty sections of ES and GK zones. Any drill plan would likely come shortly after BFS is done as any missing or juicy targets are incorporated into the new plan.
5. There is concern that the company could be taken private for less than the 52 week high. Can you comment?
A. Very unlikely. Everyone wants an exit.
My take: "Everyone" includes EE. I admit, I don't know what the repercussions of CUU going private would be to shareholders... Anybody?
6. Can we expect some guidance on the "Earn Back In" terms soon?
A. The burning question. This is our 100% owned property until the Earn Back In is completed. The agreement was a generic form that Teck used a long time ago. There are no special clauses that could take away our rights to work as we please. The negotiation points surround the applicable expenses so if we want to spend money on something else that’s up to us. We control it all until then.
My Take: I have a feeling that WGs meant to ask about the terms regarding the earn-back mine spending (number of years to spend while CUU enjoys the ride). Yes? I really wish the terms in this closet document could be brought out into the open - officially (no offence Vette). Is there not a danger of the agreement also having a reciprical clause for CUU if CUU is left with a majority ownership...(?)
7. Can we drill after the bfs?
A. Yes. See above.
My Take: If we drill next year... we should drill HUGE: 4 or more drills from the spring till winter shutdown. Drill baby drill. I can't see a downside to drilling apart from the dilution required. Any dilution should be well offset by enough good cores.
8. Can the project be sold in zones?
A.It could by mutual agreement but CUU does not want to tinker with the contract and sees no value in that. Given that, everyone has their price. We are content to plug along developing share holder value.
My Take: I'm glad to hear that. Splitting out good properties from bad properties and piecemeal approach would be a long, drawn out affair.
9. We discussed the global financial time frame. Have you changed your position on this? In our last discussion you thought it would not have a big impact but if it did there was not much that could be done about it. The general consensus is (see question 4).
A.No, no change in their point of view. They recognize time is of essence. At the end of the day there would be some wiggle room but the main driver here is the total value of the resource. Should no acceptable offer come we would look at the other options but given the present value that scenario is unlikely even if things got real bad.
We discussed what I had done to evaluate the pounds and they approve of my methodology and agreed that it’s very hard to compare because there is no historical case that’s even close. But for the purpose of napkin calculations it is a reasonable method. (10 cases statistically smoothed as a comparison base). They cautioned that it can often be a smaller detail that makes you more attractive but to temper that with market condition over a longer period of time and to consider what Tecks long term ambitions are. We know about Tecks stated goals but there may also be some unstated goals we can’t know about. However, Once the BFS is dropped we have concluded our end of the agreement and can entertain offers.
10. Are you going to achieve the stated expected result with respect to the remaining time? April to early May.
A.Yes. During the contractors meetings it was agreed that certain parts of the modules would simply take more time. Getting this right is of the greatest importance. This includes getting the new data in. It would be absurd to omit it. So I asked at what point do we say enough is enough because we could drill forever. The reply was that this new round of data would be enough. Teck wants it and so do we. Not all the holes outstanding are required but let’s say a technical hole coughs up a diamond or a 5 pound nugget what do you do then? Well, then we have a delightful problem!
The lesser questions:
a. Are you absolutely sure you want to sell and not mine? (There will be serious capital costs to be enjoyed within the next year)
A.Ya, were sure about that. It would be the recourse of last resort. You know as well as we do the time and effort it would take. We are not miners and would want an expert to partner with us to maximize our value. Then comes the money end and on and on so no.
b. When do you expect to get the .t designation instead of .vn?
A.Obviously we are investigating it. It is time consuming and there are rules to satisfy. It is something the company will peruse over time but in the background. We have our hands full.
My Take: I dont think CUU should waste one minute trying to get listed on the TSX proper. Allana (AAA) did that and I challenge anyone to demonstrate a positive outcome from that. An interesting excercise is to compare AAA's chart with CUU's chart for the past year. Note the dates for each companies' RE and some other majour milestones. AAA's chart leads CUU about a month IMO.
c. All of the small people want to know what you are going to do about share price and the company's stated timeframes.
A.We will not pay for hype. The coverage we get from time to time like the Gold Letter comes from people who believe in the project. We will not get coverage from people who want a commissioned placement because we don’t need that. The next few steps will raise the value but if the market decides to plummet then that’s what will happen to everyone. This will not take away the value we have. See above about value.
d. Will the Prospectus be completed and if so what time frame do you anticipate? Q1,Q2?
A.We have our ducks in a row. Should this be required it is ready to go.
e. Do you have enough qualified data for the silver to be included?
A.We are close and working on it. Give it a few weeks and come back to Elmer with this question.
My Take: A few weeks for silver numbers or a timeframe on their release? Maybe another key piece of the BFS that is holding it up.
f. Did you find bands of gold like the silver?
A.I like the way you think.
My Take: Honestly, how is ES supposed to answer that one LOL! Maybe a better question might have been "The silver grades are increasing as we go north. From your understanding of the deposit, do you expect other important grades, like gold to follow. What do you hope to happen as we drill north?"
g. You switched to Tetra Teck for the reRE. Was this done to accelerate the estimate?
A.Teck wanted the change. It’s possible they just feel more comfortable with the people there and have more direct relations. It does not indicate anyone was unhappy with the previous work.
h. Have you discussed road improvements with the govt's? ie the bridge upgrade etc. Is this in the works?
A.This has come up in the past and will come again from time to time. The Province has an obvious interest in BC mines.
My Take: Bridge troubles? First I've heard of this one. Are we talking issues with Transport Canada or BC Ministry of Environment on crossing Mess Creek?