Goldman Sachs has said they see an upside to oil, gold and base metals, specifically copper by the end of the year. It may look grim today for our little stock but by the end of Q1, if not already sold off, we should see a significant rise in our price that sticks this time. I have a lot of hope for a rise starting in early February, after Chinese New Year celebrations are over and going forward until this concludes.
"OLD, BASE METALS TO REBOUND
Both gold and copper have been sold off to raise cash due to tight credit conditions in Europe, but this is likely to balance itself in coming months and lead to a rebound in both metals, he said.
"The way we like to look at the commodities space is that gold and base metals reflect value plays, meaning they have had events that have created a significant disconnect between fundamentals and prices," Currie said.
In gold, a historic linkage between interest rates and gold prices broke down from October, but this should reestablish itself and lead to U.S. gold futures rising to $1,940 per ounce by the end of the year, he said.
U.S. gold futures were trading at $1,618 per ounce on Monday after rising about 10 percent last year, one of best performing assets after U.S. treasuries and Brent crude.
Gold fell by about a quarter after touching a record peak above $1,900 per ounce in September.
Base metals saw sharp falls in the fourth quarter, mainly due to destocking in Europe linked to reduced trade credit and the European debt crisis, Currie said.
"We think this is mostly behind us," he said, adding that end use consumption was much stronger than appeared due to the destocking.
LME copper, which slid 21 percent last year, is expected to end the year at $9,500 per tonne, up 27 percent from current levels of $7,500 per tonne.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/09/us-iran-china-goldman-idUSTRE8081EB20120109