Welcome To the Copper Fox Metals Inc. HUB On AGORACOM

CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Re: In Situ calculator
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Feb 19, 2012 07:11PM

Okay Ill clarify my $5-7 figure here a bit more.

It doesn't work that way any more rogue, especially for deposits like this one. You simply can NOT use those metrics with this deposit. We have a world class deposit with a Re-RE that will probably bring in another 300 Mt of much larger CuEq than this past years RE.

Why can we not use the metrics that apply to almost any buyout here? We have a very large deposit this is true, be it in the Andes or Mongolia copper is copper....there is sometimes a discrepancy in the price paid for metals in the ground...but they're generally in the same ballpark. Yes I do believe Schaft Creek is being proved up....but again...we will not see the full value on anything that isnt proven, and we will not see full value on anything in the "Inferred" category reserves. If you want full value for Schaft Creek and everything that is currently being proved up....you might want to wait another quarter or two for the BFS.

That is just the beginning. There are dollars/sh tied to the "Rest of the Stuff". All of the things that Web and Vette have posted over and over and over again for the past years are a simple reminder to the masses that we are not dealing with a typical Andes-style deposit. We are dealing with much bigger deposit that is not even close to fully drilled to width,length or depth and is part of a very large trend. A trend that doesn't have to be proved up to be remunerated with a healthy premium, when you understand the geology.

I agree....there is more to the buyout than the price of metals in the ground. However the value of Schaft Creek and the value of Copper Fox, while tied together, are two different things. Schaft Creek will comprise the bulk of the buyout price, but there are lots of other things that will add in. The NSR, our ownership of Liard, Mess Creek, high grade starter pit, shorter initial payback period, polymetallic deposit etc. etc. to name a few, I do not dispute these will add value. However I stick by my estimate of $5-7 per share and that is for everything...CUU will cease to exist. We think theres a district, I agree, there probably is one here....the recent drills are adding to the potential. However as far as a trend is concerned, we cant add value to the buyout if we do not own the land that this trend is on. Our claims have geographical boundaries that unfortunately money just can not cross. Teck cant pay us for mineralization we dont own, and we cant ask for a premium for it. We would need to identify the trend and where it lies....but if its not on our property, it is not going to affect our buyout price, however it is fantastic for other explorers in the area. A healthy premium will still not be full price for metal in the ground.

All that I am saying is that you simply can't ball-park this one with conventional web based calculators, NPV, cents/pound in situ.

Then how else do you propose people calculate the buyout value of projects? NPV is one way, and its accurate, value of metals in the ground is another that is accurate. These are commonly accepted principles in the valuation of a junior miner.

Fact of the matter is for 25% of Schaft Creek I wouldnt be surprised if we got $3.50-$4.50 for it, and then we would see added value based on the other things mentioned above and more that I havent gone into, but I stick by my $5-$7 figure.

our speculation is just that....speculation

True....we might only get $4 for our shares still, it all comes down to Big E and Teck.

Unless Teck walks away in which case its party time. However I cant see them tossing this deposit up for the pittance they will recieve 75% for. No to be honest the most likely scenario in my eyes is Teck buys the whole thing then reworks a contract for a JV with someone else. They could sell 40% of this deposit and have made all their buyout money back and then some, and then a new contract which will probably see their partner putting up a lot of costs to earn their stake.

Unfortunately CUU is massively diluted guys, this is a fact. It has 388 million shares out. I know everyone wants to see the $12.63 Ventana got but it isnt going to happen, our dilution is too crazy to warrant these massive buyout prices. The fact that we could recieve $5-7 is still ballparking this buyout in the $2-3 billion range which is still a rather large buyout. It just comes down to how many ways we have to split that payout....and in our case its 388 million ways. If we had 200 million shares out....then yes I would believe some of the numbers Ive seen or heard tossed around, however we have far more shares outstanding.

I hope this sheds a bit of light on my figure at least and explains why I think the buyout will be where it is, but please dont forget the 2 main things working against these astronomical figures are quite plainly, Tecks ability to walk with 75% for dirt cheap, and the fact that we are massively diluted.

Rogue,


Feb 19, 2012 08:25PM
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