Timeline
posted on
Apr 08, 2012 03:25AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Polling the board...
Just curious on peoples thoughts on the timeline from here.
Personally....I think at a minimum well be July.....but honestly....I suspect we'll be September-October. I wouldnt be surprised if it was December....or 2013.
I think its absurd to believe anything will happen before the next resource estimate....and even after that....its going to take some time to work it into the FS. Teck isnt going to just act out of the blue....want some proof?
If Teck was going to just act out of the blue...they would have acted before our last drill program was completed. Why would they wait on future value to be proved up if they could buy ti cheaper?
Fact...The rock is the rock. It hasnt changed. Tecks best value was clearly at our 2007 NPV. Teck didnt act.
Remember....Teck is not a small company....the agreement has been in place since 2002. Teck employs top notch employees in all aspects of its firm. Geologists, analysts, acquisition analysts....best in class assuredly.
Why havent they moved?
Teck isnt stupid.....Teck isnt going to move without knowing for sure that their acquisition is economically viable. This is a fact. Teck has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to act in their best interests. Teck also cant speed up the FS with their own firm. FS will be delivered before any decision is made.
Our contract. Tecks 120 day time frame is more than likely there for them to get all their ducks in a row with their shareholders. If Teck plans on issuing shares for a buyout....there is a certain amount of issuance that requires a vote. These securities laws are complicit with a 2009 ruling by the OSC mandating buyside shareholding votes, which also require proof that Teck will not overpay. Whether Teck hits these issuance requirements or not..I still dont believe Teck will act without seeing the FS.
Their best value was 2007 NPV of Schaft Creek....and guess what....they didnt act.
Of course....weve all heard about the "indirect holding" of Liard which will give CUU control.
Can you see Teck farming out exploration risk on a 100% owned property only to end up in a position where Teck will have no say in their own project because CUU has acquired these shares?
Liard doesnt even own that much in the whole scheme of things. Teck is not that stupid.
The 120 day clause is to get their ducks in a row....not to be forced to act by offering CUU a chance to call the shots. Stop for a second and just think about the absurdity of this. I dont even know how this sphere of thought got this far....its not even sensical. Just picture yourself as the owner of Schaft Creek (which was discovered in 1957 btw) and imagine hiring someone to do some work on it just so they could tell you what to do in the future.
Not going to happen. Clear misrepresentation of facts....get ready for a wait here folks. Pumping worked wonders on this board.
When the FS is delivered....Tecks management is going to decide how to buy us out. The day CUU gets the FS is the day Teck gets the FS. The 120 day clock starts...and we will know under securities law within 10 days of the delivery.
Teck will figure out if they want in or out (hopefully out....fingers crossed), then figure out how theyre going to pay.
In short....Teck will not act before the FS. Theres some time to scoop these cheap shares up. Teck will act sometime in their 120 day window.
Seriously...if Teck was going to move pre-FS....well....the FS has been delayed 10 months now. The numbers between 2007-June 2011 were the same. They didnt act in a 4 year window which was clearly a much better value because it didnt contain higher metals prices, and didnt contain new proved up resources. Tecks seriously not dumb enough to have the deal of the century in their lap, only to wait to pay more for it. The rock has been there millions of years...and get this....its not going anywhere.
An FS followed by an RE = and outdated FS.
We will see the new resource estimate...then they will figure out the FS.
I dont think its going to be bought before Septemberish at the earliest.
Maybe August.....but only if Tetra Tech keeps to the schedule this time.
All those posts about "for sure" its on time this time....."I called management and I have a big smile on my face...call them and see!"...yeah for sure....it was clearly supposed to be out by PDAC. Honestly...how the hell was there even apost on January 7th (or 5th) stating that they had word the FS was complete? I saved the posts.....wanna see?
Pumping....pumping....pumping.....dont believe everything you read on the internet.
Any other opinions? Lets hear it guys....thoughts from the board....input?
Rogue,