posted on
May 20, 2012 12:27PM
Welcome To the Copper Fox Metals Inc. HUB On AGORACOM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Message: RE
Emotion can be a killer in investing. Panic will snatch your money. Period.
Everyone here should be steeling their nerves for a worst-case macro scenario, one which will affect every stock. If the Euro zone unravels in the ugliest of fashions -- hopefully it does not, but always be prepared -- we would see a huge drop from where we stand even now.
Remember, in March 2007 some CUU shareholders were sitting on shares worth $1.48. By December 2008, those same shares were worth 5 cents.
Many of those shareholders bailed out on the way down, some suffered substantial losses. Imagine those who held on, how their stomachs were churning and their minds tormented with by dwelling on the potential to be deprived of every penny they worked so hard for. Must have been an awful feeling.
Of course we know now that the ones who stuck with it recovered all that money and had the chance to make even more. They could have sold at $2.75 in April 2011!
Those who bought more at those desperately low levels put themselves in a position to prosper to an even greater extent.
I can't tell you how a market meltdown will change CUU's strategy. Would management delay starting the Teck clock? If the BFS is released despite worsening global conditions, will Teck hold off on purchasing Schaft Creek? Possibly, but why would they when they are in a strong cash position and everyone knows world demand is absolutely going to resume whether it takes six months or two years. Teck needs new sources of metals and Schaft Creek has so many positives to offer.
The biggest question in my mind is what price billionaire Ernesto Echavarria would settle for under the worst of market conditions. Or, if he only receives lowball offers, would he hold off on a sale until the dark clouds have passed so the true value of Schaft Creek would be realized?
I'm betting on the latter. He has invested so much of his own money in this project that he isn't going to give it away for a song, even if he's still in a profit position by selling at $1.50 per share. He did not become a billionaire by panicking, I can guarantee you that!
Maybe, if things are turning sour around the world, Ernesto decides to fund an extensive drilling campaign so Schaft Creek's worth shoots even higher when markets turn green again long-term. He has options (in both the literal and figurative sense).
The beauty of CUU's assets is they are in the ground. The wealth of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum and rhenium are not going away, global economics be damned!
If you have put yourself in a position where you've already bet more than you can afford on CUU or any stock, I can't help you. You've broken a golden rule of investing and hopefully things recover soon so you don't get burnt.
However, if you can afford to wait, even though it's going to be immensely frustrating, then gather whatever spare cash you can over the next several months and take advantage of these prices.
Look, I'd like to see the markets rebound next week and CUU sell for $5 per share right away so I can cautiously reinvest elsewhere. It is the possibility of global stabalization and a rapidly-approaching CUU sale of Schaft Creek to Teck that should make everyone hesitant to sell now in hopes of buying back at a possibly lower price.
But barring such a welcome scenario, I'm prepared to stay in the trenches and drop every extra dollar I can in Copper Fox, firmly believing that I will reap the benefits in the future.
I won't let fear prevent me from getting ahead.
Long and strong at $1.00, just as I was at $2.75 and I will be if we see even lower prices.
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