Re: tech gun shy?
in response to
by
posted on
May 21, 2012 09:26AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Even in the apocolyptic scenario where there is a major 2008 style collapse, but on a bigger more global level (Instead of a few banks going bust, countries go bust) and hell starts to fall from the sky - so what?
If that were to happen, perhaps the strategy would change. If Teck low-balled us, then there's nothing that says we have to sell to them, it's in our mutual interest because of the already working relationship (good for future projects and contracts) to potentially do so. However, if they low-balled us, there's no reason we can't go to other companies and sell our share to them. Now - this brings us to the reason why that liklihood is slim. Teck probably wants to choose its own partners and it wouldn't be in their best interest to just buy the whole thing instead of having to work with someone else. Especially considering all the caveats of the deal that are in our favor, such as financing and time-frame to get the mine built. Perhaps the metals in the ground are only worth so much, but those legal caveats surely add value to us.
That pretty much clears up the idea of a general low ball idea in my head given "normal" macroeconomic situations. If there is a collapse style - then you have to figure that this collapse starts to happen during the same time that we would be sold, which even with all the uncertainty - doesn't seem like it'll happen all too soon. Given the very latest possible scenario (assuming a sale to Teck) let's give them late August for FS release and 120 days still gives us a sale by the latest at the end of December. There's a good chance that we get sold before that. They don't have to take all 120 days, they can announce it the same day that FS is released or 30 days in or 60. I'm also assuming a pretty late release of FS. Point is, if you see the world collapsing in the next 4 to 8 months, then you have bigger issues than CUU. Even if because of this apocolyptic collapse no one wanted to buy us....we could just go mining and put Teck in a rough spot financing our share during the apocolypse, and forcing them to build it in a short time frame.
I agree that you should factor in every possible scenario. Negative an positive. Look at all angles. However, that said - assign a percentage of liklihood to each of those scenarios when you weigh it in. Even in an apocolypse scenario, we have options that are in our favour, even though the scenario itself is unlikely.
Remember, you're not just buying numbers on a screen. You're buying a business that goes on regardless. The metals are there and management is working whether you buy your portion for $0.05, $1 or $2.75. As long as when you sell your portion of the business, it's for more than you bought them at. If the price of the business goes lower, and the business is running the same - then you can get more of the business for less.