A discussion at the pub earlier is actually the root cause for this post...a slight dissection of factors I see both working for and against us in terms of a buyout.

I should post that my prediction was $5.50....a little higher than the median in the survey...but I also think we might see up to $7....it is kind of hard to nail down the premium Teck might pay to us (if at all)....its hard to value intangible things.

Against us;

CUU has massive dilution..no two ways about it...in fact I think this is the cardinal reason we will not see a huge buyout. $7 is on the upper end of this and its already bringing us to almost $3 billion bucks. Im sorry I just have a hard time believing its possible to go above here.....even at $5.50 we;re seeing a $2.2 billion dollar buyout for 25%.

The fact that Teck walks away with 75% for a pittance. Dont get me wrong...even the worst case scenario leaves us with 450 million tonnes to divide amongst us...maybe itll be better....and we can add a tangible value in for the new properties etc. For the amount we paid for them...even a .10 cent a share return is profit in the bank.....however 75% of this puppy goes to Teck for next to nothing.

Dual point: Ernesto may decide to take the first offer for cheap just to get his money back..we can speculate all we want..only Ernesto knows for sure what hes going to do.

For us;

We have a massive resource, even 25% is going to pay us quite well..it just remains to be seen on the BFS. We can basically value a buyout on a rough value - the capex...or a chunk thereof. 450 million tonnes at a minimum, even with dilution should get us to about $2.50 at least.

We have not yet seen numbers with Rhenium added. At $130 an ounce.....this can make quite a difference in our buyout.

We still havent factored silver in.

We also just added 700 million tonnes.....its in the inferred category..so sadly we wont see a full price on this as its only speculated "that its there"....we would need to do a lot of drilling to be able to have the accuracy of either a measured or indicated category...but 700 million tonnes inferred will still be a rather large pay out...even if not at full value.

I dont think the Liard shares etc. are going to make as big a difference as most people think...for the life of me I still cant figure out why Teck would make a contract that ends up with them losing control over a property they once owned. I just dont see it. I also dont think we're going to be paid a substantial premium for lands we own that havent seen drills....we may see a small premium..but no drills...no bucks.

Forward looking we know there is more mineralization there. We havent the drills to prove it, but the geology indicates Schaft Creek is much larger than its current indications. How large? I dont know...again...while we will not see full value for this.....we will see an increase in the price paid to CUU in a buyout. I think theres at least another billion tonnes there...maybe more...Teck can speculate all they want. Again..full value will not be recieved...but it will add in.

The fact we're in North America...I dont know how much this will affect us but it should give us a little something. Its been a part of the deal since day one so I doubt its a shining golden point that Tecks salivating over. Again small...but small when it comes to 1.8 billion tonnes will still add up nicely.

We do (for a deposit of this size) have an excellent property, one that should allow for a significant reduction in Capex based against other porphyrys of this size. Even though at first glance our Capex looks large....as a percentage of the whole deposit it is actually quite good. Any difference to the positive will affect our buyout.

Commodity prices against the 2007 RE...much higher....will add in to our buyout.

Dual point: Ernesto. As much as we cant say what Ernesto will do..we have to add this in potentially both ways. Ernesto may jump to get his money...this is true. Ernesto may also drive a hard bargain.

Now....this is where I believe we could see a premium based on absolutely no value...merely the fact that Teck wants to get this done smoothly and without having to worry about anyone else bidding for our chunk. If you think about it...if n$2.2 billion is going to net 25% of Schaft creek....300 million for 75% is unbelivable. This in itself leaves Teck open to make a profit on a resale. Teck could easily buy our 25%, turn around and vend 40% of this property out with a clause to production...and walk away with profit...and 60% for free. I believe this is the critical point in a buyout. Teck can basically make a lot of money for free...however they lose this advantage in the event of a bidding war.

That being said....Teck could also very easily tack on a 10%+ premium just to ensure Ernesto "sees things their way".

Its tough to say which way things will go....My long time guess as it turns out is just slightly above the median so I still stick by my prediction. Of all the factors discussed...i believe the last one will have the most significant effect above and beyond the $5.50 target I have set. However the future is not yet written.

There are lots of good theories to accompany the lower end of this spectrum...however I see absolutely no way we will see over $7 for this.

Ill still be fine with $3-$3.50.....but I suspect were over the $5 mark as is.

Patience ladies and gentlemen....were almost there.

Rogue,