Awesome, so for the most part let's say we agree. After Capex, let's say SC is worth somewhere between $4-6B. I'm looking on the higher side because of the new RE, but let's compromise and say $5B which gives our 25% a value of about 1.25B, split amongst 400million shares about $3/share.
If this was a normal company, and we had a normal agreement - I'd tend to agree with you. I'd even be on a more conservative side and say closer to $2 than to $3. However forget the geology for a bit, and look at the business side and the agreement.
I see CUU as in control, more so than Teck. What happens if Teck doesn't want to pay? Well we have a free ride to production. We don't have to worry about financing, we're explorers not miners and bring little to the table for a JV (and Teck likes partnering), however we're still in control until Teck earns it's option back, and even when they do they're still constricted in control because they have to bring it into production within 4 years.
The biggest risk they have is not earning back their 75% (they only make an intention now, they don't get it till they earn it back) or breaking the contract for 4 years production. This is all absolved however, by buying out the remaining 25%. Now, although the price of the actual metals in the ground/future cash revenue may be worth $1.25B today (give or take) - what's worth a lot more is the insurance on the 75% of the property and making sure you keep and control it.
Putting a number on that sort of intangible is definitely difficult to do, but you can agree that it is worth something - which should bring even your conservative $2/share up a bit no? When comparing it to other buyouts - the position of the buyer and seller is something very important to look at. We bought Sombrero/Van Dyke at 2million...but we bought it from a seller who's going bankrupt. Those are the types of properties that sell at a discount. We're not in that position.
There are other premium and insurance like factors that adds value to us such as jurisdiction, environment, locales, ability to sell the metal easily (port), power, workers, safety etc. When you're comparing other buyouts - you have to consider if those things are equal, if they're not and are worse than CUU, a premium should be given.
I can agree that the value of SC as just a property is between $2-$3 a share for us, however it's the intangibles that add a lot more than that. How much that is, is up for debate.