As much as I want to believe you about what Elmer says to you on the phone, I will not just take him at his word. I am a skeptic and require data to back it up.
Elmer and I were talking about methods of valuations, not specifics, and I said something about 25%, and he just showed slight annoyance that it is reduced to 25% automatically. Right now we own 100% of the project and there are options out there for Teck, but Teck has to earn their share and it will take time and increase our value as they are doing so. Just reducing our value all of the time to 25% is not an accurate description of the company's worth.
There is no further data required to back up this comment, it is clearly written in the Agreement with Teck. It was your comment that said this: "I think 99% of us here can agree that the NPV of the project in the upcoming BFS will be nowhere near $16 Billion dollars (valuing our ~25% at 4 billion)" that I was trying to say was, in my opinion, deceptive. It is not a simple matter of multiplying any stock price by 4 to get the overall value, and then discrediting it on those grounds.
But the question is how much? 30%? 33%? 40%? 50%?
I don't think fixating on the percentage of the whole project is going to produce an answer because there are so many potential ways to add value that won't show up in the NPV of Schaft Creek. We also have the option of retaining some properties and getting spinco shares or selling off our other BC claims.
My issue is with their inability to provide a conservative deadline.
They can't provide a conservative deadline, they have to strive to provide an accurate one. They are supposed to be telling the truth as they know it. If their contractors give them a deadline, then they have to think that is going to happen and reveal it. I'm frustrated too, but I tend to believe that the past delay was not their fault, and then they thought it was better to incorporate the RE2 results and take the summer. I know this will make the project a lot better overall and should make me more money.
I actually think the management has avoided hype to a great extent. Actually, almost totally, to the point of being positively dull at times.
As much as we have ~50 days left, at the same time they ONLY have 50 days to get their sh*t together and get a BFS out before they miss another deadline.
Logically it doesn't make sense that they might miss this deadline because it is only 50 days away. Mind you...it is possible...we might get bought out before then.
