Some very rough numbers
posted on
Oct 12, 2012 02:48AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Really rough numbers based on the old 2008 PFS for any of the bored on the board. Many assumptions need to be made here with many asterisks all along the way.
Start with the metal produced per year based on the tonnes per day processed (should/could update this). Then take some 2012 metal prices which might be a little high, or not. OPEX for the 2008 PFS was $12.49/t (transport, smelting, refining, processing) so I upped that 15% to $14.36/t to be safe. And yes, a high CAPEX, again to be on the safe side ... I'm actually not that risk averse based on the last 18 months of buying behavior with CUU! Just like to try and weigh the risks I take.
2008 PFS for 100k tpd | 100k tpd annual | 150k tpd | 200k tpd | 2012 prices? |
Cu lbs per year | 211,104,788 | 316,657,182 | 422,209,576 | $3.25 |
Mo lbs per year | 11,311,809 | 16,967,714 | 22,623,618 | $11.00 |
Au ozs per year | 199,178 | 298,767 | 398,356 | $1,300.00 |
Ag ozs per year | 1,439,717 | 2,159,576 | 2,879,434 |
$26.00 |
So without factoring in the money Teck would need to put in to build the mine, and without factoring in the extra lands (which I don't think are worth that much right now), here's a rough buyout price based on NPV discounted at 5%/8% before taxes. Despite the arguments over whether Teck is buying 25% or 100%, I like to go with 25% personally. They may not even want to pay 25% as Teck will be the one's taking all the risk going forward putting this into production. We'll see I guess.
These are very rough numbers and less developed than others here have shared, but something to peruse for any interested. Apologies for the formatting in advance.
NPV | 150k tpd | 150k tpd | 200k tpd | 200k tpd |
Discount rate | 8% | 5% | 8% | 5% |
CAPEX | $4,500,000,000 | $4,500,000,000 | $5,000,000,000 | $5,000,000,000 |
Year 1 | $884,697,753 | $884,697,753 | $1,179,597,004 | $1,179,597,004 |
2 | $813,921,933 | $840,462,865 | $1,085,229,244 | $1,120,617,154 |
3 | $748,808,178 | $798,439,722 | $998,410,904 | $1,064,586,296 |
4 | $688,903,524 | $758,517,736 | $918,538,032 | $1,011,356,981 |
5 | $633,791,242 | $720,591,849 | $845,054,989 | $960,789,132 |
6 | $583,087,943 | $684,562,257 | $777,450,590 | $912,749,676 |
7 | $536,440,907 | $650,334,144 | $715,254,543 | $867,112,192 |
8 | $493,525,635 | $617,817,437 | $658,034,180 | $823,756,582 |
9 | $454,043,584 | $586,926,565 | $605,391,445 | $782,568,753 |
10 | $417,720,097 | $557,580,237 | $556,960,130 | $743,440,315 |
11 | $384,302,489 | $529,701,225 | $512,403,319 | $706,268,300 |
12 | $353,558,290 | $503,216,164 | $471,411,054 | $670,954,885 |
13 | $325,273,627 | $478,055,355 | $433,698,169 | $637,407,140 |
14 | $299,251,737 | $454,152,588 | $399,002,316 | $605,536,783 |
15 | $275,311,598 | $431,444,958 | $367,082,131 | $575,259,944 |
16 | $253,286,670 | $409,872,710 | $337,715,560 | $546,496,947 |
17 | $233,023,736 | $389,379,075 | $310,698,315 | $519,172,100 |
18 | $214,381,838 | $369,910,121 | $285,842,450 | $493,213,495 |
19 | $197,231,291 | $351,414,615 | $262,975,054 | $468,552,820 |
20 | $181,452,787 | $333,843,884 | $241,937,050 | $445,125,179 |
21 | $166,936,564 | $317,151,690 | $222,582,086 | $422,868,920 |
22 | $153,581,639 | $301,294,106 | $204,775,519 | $401,725,474 |
23 | $141,295,108 | $286,229,400 | $188,393,477 | $381,639,200 |
24 | $129,991,499 | $271,917,930 | $173,321,999 | $362,557,240 |
25 | $119,592,179 | $258,322,034 | $159,456,239 | $344,429,378 |
TOTAL | $9,683,411,849 | $12,785,836,419 | $12,911,215,799 | $17,047,781,892 |
BUYOUT? | $3.08 | $4.92 | $4.70 | $7.15 |
NPV minus capex divided by 421M shares x 25% |