Some pure speculation on my part…

Ernesto will want to get his money out somehow, so this state of affairs can’t go on indefinitely. But with all the missed BFS “deadlines” I think he’s just not on our timeline. I have no doubt that whatever is going on is designed (from CUU’s perspective) to get a liquidity event priced as high as possible: the intrinsic value plus a premium if possible. The Agoracom crowd has this event pegged around $4-$7 (on paper).

It seems reasonable to believe Teck’s wants to pay as little as possible, thus thwarting an easy sale. At any stage, had CUU presented itself as a bargain relative to its intrinsic, Teck (or anyone) could have walked in with an offer. Just like CUU did to the Arizona properties.

We’re still here so we know they’re not letting us go at bargain rates. CUU must want fair, or fair + premium.

I’ve always thought this whole deal would just be a matter of “dropping the BFS” and forcing Teck’s hand. Maybe Teck’s hand is a little stronger (right now) than we think? The market for Schaft is a pretty small one… a handful of mining companies, with Teck being the prime suitor. What this “market” is willing to bear (forget the retail share price) may not be good enough for Ernesto right now? This my utter speculation, but might explain the endless “hurry up and delay”….

As long as the time value of their money remains worth the risk of waiting.. there just isn’t a reason for them to settle cheap. As long as the market remains unstable and juniors are down across the board, there’s no need for Teck to “make our day”. At least copper demand and supply trends are in our long term favour. Inexorably so.

So I do think that Agoracom’s “wisdom of the crowds” fair value in the $4-$7 ish range is very reasonable. I would love that events conspire to make that deal happen VERY SOON. But if not, I am prepared to wait… and wait. I don’t have a choice anyway being deeply underwater, but at least I have a rationale to make the waiting more bearable. Better than a nagging fear they’ll walk out cheap and leave me submerged. Which of course COULD happen, but I don’t see it as likely at all.

As for the retail market stock price of $1ish.. I see this as a reflection that easier money can be had elsewhere. It’ll pile on once CUU or Teck finally make a move… not before. I don’t think it’s a good indicator of our value or when a deal might be struck. As has been said, the volume is just too low to indicate leaks. The drop in short volume is interesting too, but probably doesn’t mean much if leaks have been ruled out on low volume.