Liquidity thoughts
posted on
Dec 22, 2012 11:03PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
I've been trying to understand where this feasibility leaves us. These are some of the thoughts that I'm having, with apologies if they have already been mentioned.
1. If Teck wants to buy out our share of the project (let's call it the 25%) then they have to do so within the 120 day period, possibly 60 days, probably 30 days. On the other hand, we don't have to sell at all if we don't like the price.
If we get a low price based on this feasibility we could hold onto our share and put in 10 drill holes and prove up that remaining 171.16 million tonnes of inferred resource. We could work on the other things the feasibility recommends such as increasing the metal recovery and increasing throughput.
(On this topic of throughput, it is engineered to expand to 180,000 tpd which was an added cost up front but will be much cheaper if it is done that way rather than in a few years after production. They have taken all the steps necessary to show a major producer that this is turnkey, for example getting the Hydro.)
If Teck opts for the 75% but won't pay us a good price, then we get a free ride while Teck pays $1.2 billion to carry this through to production. That would make our 25% value much higher than it is right now, and we can sell it to someone else along the way.
Teck has probably made a much better feasibility than we could, and would be more comfortable looking at the ROV at 5% rather than the threshold that the contract specified of NPV at 8%.They might also reasonably believe that the price of copper in 7 years is going to be much higher than this feasibility will show.
So if Teck wants in at all they likely want everything and can be expected to pay a reasonable amount. If they come in for anything, even if not 100%, it will validate the project and our share will be worth more, plus they can pay for the drills to improve the resource.
2. If Teck walks away then we know it is worth at least $531 million. We also know we own it 100% at that point. We could then sell it, or do a bit of work to prove up the inferred and the other feasibility recommendations.
We would have to wait another year probably but we could get the environmental application going. (BTW I believe this has been delayed substantially by the two extra FN groups that won the right to be involved because of the road out to the Port. Shane told me not too long ago that he didn't think it would be a problem, but it would add a lot more work.)
Summary: So I guess it is worth at least $531 million because if we don't get offered at least $1.26 per share (I think it works out to) then we are better off holding onto the project and not selling. Teck can't force us to sell, they can only walk away and then we're still worth $531 million.
In terms of Monday, then it doesn't make sense to sell for less than $1.26 because Teck will come to some sort of decision probably by the end of January. Either way we shouldn't eventually go for less than that and the upside is quite big.
Now, I have to get back to my guests!