Hello everyone, I'm back from holidays and, despite some serious jet lag, I'm getting caught up with the FS release and the many opinions offered to date.
Keeping mho's brief:
- FS is not that great but it is okay. Capex is good, IRR and NPV is not great but conservative as the (robust) 3 yr price ($3.63) is considerably higher than our base price ($3.25).
- 5% vrs 8% - I think that is simply a function of the Teck Agreement. I agree with others that 8% is probably okay to use right now without a permit but classicly understatted (per Elmer's style) vrs using 5% as some other jr's use in their FS's in less friendly jurisdictions (eg South America).
- I nearly had a fit when I saw the undrilled 'waste rock' (undrilled eastern portions of Big Red) and thought of our wasted summer of drilling. I can only conclude that Elmer knows what this rock is (plenty of drilling of the same chargeability blob to the west) and has left it out of the BFS study for a strategic ploy. Similarly, I think Tck knows what that rock is as well - upside. My theory: the strategy being to mute the FS and create a situation tailored to Tck's benefit in negotiating a purchase of the deposit. I think Mira etc is being kept in the dark as there are negotiations including adjoing properties not owned by CUU at stake.
- Trading tomorrow will be like a 3 way game of punch-gut between insiders, longs/retail and folks abandoning ship. No promises on where it will go but cheaper prices seeam really likely in the near term before we climb out.
- This is my first post since leaving early Dec so no post of mine disappeared (as discussed a few pages back). I wont' have time to respond to everyone that inboxed me in my absence - sorry
- I believe this will be a mine and that Tck (et al.) can make a lot of money here and the synergies for Tck wrt Galore, BC, China have been well discussed and remain unchanged.
- I'm in to the buyout.
