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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Re: Inferred Valuation
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Dec 27, 2012 09:08PM
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Dec 28, 2012 01:41AM
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This is post by Miningguy I replied to - not sure if people are referring to this message being pulled or not:

Inferred Valuation

posted on Dec 27, 12 09:08PMUse the IP Check tool[?]

Has anyone else done a valuation post-BFS that includes value for the inferred? The best I can find is this:

http://agoracom.com/ir/CopperFoxMetals/forums/discussion/topics/558412-copper-fox-feasibility-measured-vs-inferred-vs-reality/?message_id=1757409#message_1757409

Here is my preliminary back of the envelope valuation. I have taken the BFS valuation and added the incremental value from processing 100% of the inferred resource currently mined in the BFS but considered waste.

The valuation below assumes the 171Mt is processed at the end of the mine life (adds ~3.5yrs at 130ktpd) and does not increase capex or change the BFS' first 21 years in the mine plan. This assumption seems somewhat logical given the inferred resources' grade (lower than P&P) and location (below most of the P&P). However, if the inferred is converted to ore from waste there is the opportunity to increase capacity and modify the mine plan.

Two cases are presented for valuing the inferred. The high case shows the incremental value of processing all the inferred without any discounting or changes in capex. The low case discounts the 3.5 years of additional mine life at 8% at the end of the BFS mine life - mining costs are not double counted.

Inferred Valuation:

  • Using the same recoveries and prices as the P&P a tonne of inferred is worth $22.65/tonne (assume ~90% payable similar to the BFS)
  • Since the ore is already mined and the cost is included in the BFS the incremental operating cost is only $6.77/tonne
  • The operating profit per tonne of inferred (net taxes) is $10.32/tonne or $1.77B for 100% of the 171Mt inferred resource

CUU Valuation:

High Case 100% 24% $/share
BFS NPV @8% $67M $16M 0.04
Inferred (in-pit) undiscounted $1,488M $357M 0.85
Total $1,555M $373M 0.88
Low Case 100% 24% $/share
BFS NPV @8% $67M $16M 0.04
Inferred (in-pit) Est. NPV @8% $201M $48M 0.11
Total $268M $64M 0.15

All numbers are after-tax. Per share numbers assume 24% interest and 422M shares outstanding.

The high case is unrealistic since the 171Mt cannot be processed immediately and shows the maximum value of the inferred. The low case is much more realistic but too conservative since there is an opportunity to increase capacity or delay mining costs until the ore is ready to be processed.

Any other thoughts on how to value the inferred?

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