Since Teck gets such a good deal for 75%, I've always thought that some of these savings would be negotiated as a premium by CUU for their 25% stake...
Now that we have the BFS, here is my attempt to find a pathway to a $3+ share price... using only the summary numbers.
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CUU has 397.6 M shares outstanding (accourding to TMX)
The current share price appears to appreciate CUU inline with the Real Options Case NPV@8% (1.382B), with Teck taking 75%, leaving CUU with 25%.
25% of 1.382 B is 345.5 M, or 0.87 cents a share, right about where we are today.
The Real Options Case NPV @8% scenario
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If Teck elects to take 75% for 4x expenditures, that's 340M.
So in this scenario, Teck outlays 685.5M (345.M + 340M) to acquire CUU (NPV of 1.32B....being very conservative and considering nothing for pit waste, power, port, Liard, etc. etc.)
This gives Teck a 634.5M advantage (1.32B - 685.5M) which is sure to be recognized by CUU in negotiations.
The cost of inconvenience to Teck should CUU sell their 25% to "an interested party" is at least worth some amount of this 634.5M advantage... which Teck can use as a premium to sweeten their offer for CUU's 25% share...
Let's say that premium is 50% of the advantage (317M) which is added to CUU's original 25% (345.5M) totalling 662.5M. This now yields $1.66 a share. And Teck still gets a 317M discount...
Real Options Case NPV @5% scenario
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25% of 2.665B is 666M, or $1.68 a share
If Teck elects 75% for 4x expenditures, that's still 340M.
So in this scenario, Teck outlays 666M + 340M = 1B to acquire CUU (NPV of 2.665B.... again, being very conservative and considering nothing for pit waste, power, port, Liard, etc. etc.)
That's now a 1.66B advantage for Teck (2.665B - 1B) which, again, is sure to be recognized in negotiations.
For control, let's say they again offer 50% of this advantage to recognize a premium for CUU's 25% stake.
That's 666M + 533M (premium) = 1.2B, and that's $3 a share for CUU and Teck is still getting a 533M discount.
