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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Re: Elmer is AWESOME! Part II
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Jan 21, 2013 06:44PM
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Jan 21, 2013 09:28PM
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Jan 21, 2013 09:44PM

I'm back and I'll try and add more to what I posted earlier.

So at the show Elmer touched on quite a few subjects and one of the most important ones was how companies use models to value other companies.

NPV is a great method for trying to figure out value if things were static and have a short life span but Shaft Creek will have at least a 21 year mine life. Elmer went over the block model and he believes this mine could be over 50+ years so NPV is not a good way of evaluating cuu. Real options case uses complex models and can assume diffrent situations such as building another mine in a different area if copper prices were $5/lbs in a few years time.

The BFS report is only on one section of Shaft Creek and he was showing me a map of areas that were outside of the block model that he believes if drilled could be upgraded to either measured or indciated resouces to extend mine life and improve economics.

I also asked about the Liard shares and he told me Liard was one of the earliest groups that found the deposit in Shaft Creek. He tried to explain the math but basically Liard owners will get 30% of the future profits from Shaft Creek and these people are not selling their shares. I am not 100% sure on the breakdown and percentages but once the BFS is handed to Teck we get ownership of those Liard Shares but if Teck backs in for 75% they get some of the ownership back. Basically if I am not mistaken, if teck backs in for 75% Cuu will have around 24% of the net profits coming out of Shaft Creek for FREE! I should have took notes when I was talking to him. Elmer believes if teck backs in for 75% then they would just buy us out.

CUU's main goal is to get the mine ready for anyone to take over. He told me there have been a number of companies interested in cuu but because they don't know what TEck is going to do they want to wait and see. He also mentioned Teck could form a JV with them and I asked would this be the worst case scenario because we would have to wait 5-6 years before getting any money back. He said this could be a possiblity but not a bad scenario consider everything is finance for CUU and we would get around 24% of the $371M every year (BASE CASE).

He also says Teck is a fair company and expects a fair offer if there is a buyout. He also said you can't speculate what Teck is going to do because they are a large company and they have many projects on the go so anything can happen. CUU can only keep moving forward no matter what and keep making the company as attractive as possible.

I also asked about Ernesto and he said Elmer met him in 2009 when he joined CUU. He said both him and Enresto has changed CUU to what it is today. Ernesto got CUU out of $4 million debt and is the biggest supporter of CUU. He said Ernesto is a smart man and won't leave money on the table.

I asked what happens when a buyout offer comes along? He said if its a fair offer there will be a news release. If the majority shareholders don't think its fair there will be negotiations. Basically Ernesto knows what the company is worth and so does Teck so they won't give a low ball offer. He believes Teck won't play around because another company could jump in as well.

Also in regards to the buyout price, Elmer said you can't just put a premium on the share price. Companies will value what the project is worth and make an offer. He mentioned First Quatum's hostile bid for Inmet mining. I believe he said the BFS was done in 2010 and the NPV was using 2010 metal prices but that is not stopping First Quatum from bidding 5.1 billion for only 80% of the project. I believe his point was that companies are using Real Options Case to value a project and not the base case.

Also forgot to mention if a buyout does occur we will get 1 to 1 shares for CUU2 and a cash dividend (or shares I think) because they used another company to purchase the land in Arizona. They did this for legal reasons and its better for the share holders because it is just a straight share swap (tax purposes).

I think thats all the good stuff I got from talking to Elmer and I can tell you I walked away smiling and very confident in my investment in CUU. If I remember anything else I'll try and post it as well.

Regards

604DD

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Jan 22, 2013 03:06AM
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