Majors see further down the road, and to some degree can make the markets ... very telling that the Teck SVP in that audio talks about making money basically on the commodity price spikes.
In my opinion, there is far "less" likelihood of a $3-5 buyout as there was pre-BFS - yes, I'm well aware of the ROV and what Elmer is saying about it ... we'll see is all I can say, maybe he's right, maybe he's not ... I'd like it a lot better if Teck senior management were touting this formula for how they would value deposits.
You said it youself but am not sure you made the connection. Here's what Ron Milos says:
"And it ultimately comes down to the decision that price and the capital cost is the key things, but when it comes down to decision time, it's what's the likelihood that the commodity price is going to exceed this for an extended period of time. The key thing that we don't know is -- and probably nobody does -- is what the future commodity price is going to be. So you can pick your price and it is what it is.
The other thing that we know is when you build your models, year-long term price is CAD2.50, CAD3.00, whatever you believe it is going to be. In reality, the price is going to be spiking and the mining industry, you make all your money in the price spikes and that's the rationale for wanting the long life assets is that you get a lot more price spikes than you do with a short life asset.
That's basically the whole idea behind ROV in that it takes into account long life and "smooths" the spikes and takes that into account more. He is "touting it" with out actually saying it. The problems with NPV are the problems he lists.
The one thing that worries me is that he basically says you can make anything work if you put in the right numbers. Actual quote, "we can make anything work by changing your commodity price assumption." We have a pretty high copper price assumption. BUT everything else is pretty solid.